XBTFX

Bitcoin: still heavily overbought

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣
The crypto market slowed down a bit during the previous week, after an quite optimistic start of the year. Current market developments have been priced, so the market is waiting for new signals in order to define the trading side. Published figures for Q4 US GDP shows that the US economy is slowing down, but it is still holding a momentum. Certainly, the next big news is coming in a week ahead, when the FOMC will decide on a further increase of its rates. Markets are expecting to see a 25 bps hike, and a clear signal that the FED will slow down with its monetary tightening in the coming period. In case of any surprises, increased market volatility might be ahead.

For the last three weeks, BTC has been testing the $23K short term resistance line. During the week, the coin reached the highest level at $23.7K on only one occasion, but soon reverted back to the levels around the $23K. RSI looks a bit scary on charts at this moment, as it moves for the last three weeks in a heavily overbought market. It continues to indicate that the reversal is coming, but the market is still not convinced that it should be the next move. There are movements with MA50 and MA200 lines, which have taken a path of moving closer to each other, but still, there is a small difference between them which needs to be passed in the future period.

Charts continue to point on a short term reversal in the coming period for BTC. Still, as the RSI indicator was moving for three weeks on a heavily overbought side, it shows that investors are still more oriented toward the buy side, rather than the selling one. There are still investors who are waiting for a clear signal to re-enter the crypto market. And if we add to it the forthcoming FOMC meeting in a week ahead, then it might be a breaking week either to up or to downside. Based on the charts and probability of moves, at this moment there are equal chances for BTC to finally head toward the $25K resistance or it will finally revert to the downside and to $20K support line.

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