BTC super easy to trade on Fibonacci (again!!) 7.3k --> 5.4-5.5k
已更新
[Intro]
Like shown in my previous idea(s) (read updates on shared ideas), nearly every minor and every major move BTC has made over the last weeks was based on Fibonacci! Nobody can deny it, this is all black on white and most of them I have shared via updates on my idea before it happened... All others I have shared in the BitMEX trollbox before it happened.
I really like Tradingview, as you can show analysis black on white before it goes down, and nobody can argue with you afterwards. So once again, I am going to try to focus on using/updating this and future ideas a bit more than I previously did, instead of sharing all my knowledge via Crypto chats like I have been doing most of my life so far. Hope you appreciate me doing this!
Of course, I cannot share every minor move before it happens, I sometimes do not have the time or access to do so. On top of that, some of my self-made/customized TA techniques I prefer to hold to myself or small groups for various reasons. I hope everyone understands this means you still have to DYOR! And I highly encourage everyone to try out charting yourselves on whatever time frame you see fit. Please, share your own findings with us and let me know in the comments where you agree or don't agree! Your involvement is always appreciated.
[Previous Idea and recent past]
Let's start with going through what went down previously before looking into the now and the future. As mentioned before, I was doubting between a double top 5 in the Elliott count for a medium term wave, or an unfinished 5 which still needed to break 7k. I was leaning towards that second call as you can see in my previous idea linked below. There I mentionted a potential TP of 7900 when BTC would run into the golden pocket probably ending at 8100 resistance. I was well aware of the 0.5 FIB at 7200 and had profit taking orders lying at that price. After the first drop which was very much expected, I entered a long at 6700 which was the 0.5 FIB of the last short term parabolic move upwards to that 7200, and I was very curious whether that "7060" level would break, I already put a profit taking order at 7049.5 yesterday after going long as I noticed it was the only FIB level (golden pocket) with decent market acceptance. I was a bit lucky with my entry as 7049.5 was the highest we went, and my order was filled. I put the update on Tradingview later today, but still well in advance of BTC reaching that target. On the 5min time frame below that 7049.5 top (BitMEX),I switched the rest of the long into a short, which was also part of my game plan mentioned previously in the update.
From there on I was fixated on the newly created support level (0.5 FIB intraday TF) at 6780, which broke later on and confirmed my short position was a good call for the mid term. This means, as previously mentioned, that I believe we will go down to the 5.4-5.5k area where we find a whole bunch of support levels which I trust will not break, but never trust anything blindly!
[Short Term]
Where are we at now, what's my game plan on the way down?
We have bounced on various short term FIB support levels along the way, but lucky for us fresh bears, all of those broke without too much effort. I am now convinced that on the short term there is nothing to support a significant bounce from here. However, at 6480 we now find the 0.236 of the bigger mid term Fibonacci from the low, this one might cause a significant increase in price as it is a price level of interest based on past price actoin, and it might be worth to take partial profit before it hits and add more to the position when the bounce comes to an end (expecting high 6.7k area for that). You will see on the char that there is another Fibonacci level with decent importance based on past behavior, this would be the 0.382 which would be a perfect contender for the A wave to end in an ABC correctin that's supposed to end at 5.4-5.5k. You get the picutre, trade this downwards market however you prefer, but please stay safe, don't use too much leverage, always use a stop loss and move it around if you want.
[Long Term (charts following)]
What does this mean long term?
A drop to 5.4k may seem like outrageous to some of us, while other truly believe the low is yet to follow. I think it is a beautiful middle ground as it fills the volume gap above it and plus or minus corresponds with the most important FIB level on BTC the 0.5. The next interesting Fibonacci level to look out for would still be that same golden pocket at 8100 it is not going away (unless of course we get a lower low in the end). If you believe in Fibonacci extensions, which I do a little bit, but not as much, the future for Bitcoin is very bright, and I will definitely share my long term view based on that later on, but I am less experienced with the indicator.
Note to honor our dear friend Don Don Fibonaccio (creds to Kirbs)
I am very convinced that in a healthy market with enough open interest and a minimal of exterior factors (like Corona) Fibonacci will guide 99% of all major moves. Unless another indicator can convince over time that it has complete control of the market, (like we saw during the whole 13.9k to 6.4k correction for almost an entire year with my previously shared Shiff Pitchfork).
As always, stay safe!
Like shown in my previous idea(s) (read updates on shared ideas), nearly every minor and every major move BTC has made over the last weeks was based on Fibonacci! Nobody can deny it, this is all black on white and most of them I have shared via updates on my idea before it happened... All others I have shared in the BitMEX trollbox before it happened.
I really like Tradingview, as you can show analysis black on white before it goes down, and nobody can argue with you afterwards. So once again, I am going to try to focus on using/updating this and future ideas a bit more than I previously did, instead of sharing all my knowledge via Crypto chats like I have been doing most of my life so far. Hope you appreciate me doing this!
Of course, I cannot share every minor move before it happens, I sometimes do not have the time or access to do so. On top of that, some of my self-made/customized TA techniques I prefer to hold to myself or small groups for various reasons. I hope everyone understands this means you still have to DYOR! And I highly encourage everyone to try out charting yourselves on whatever time frame you see fit. Please, share your own findings with us and let me know in the comments where you agree or don't agree! Your involvement is always appreciated.
[Previous Idea and recent past]
Let's start with going through what went down previously before looking into the now and the future. As mentioned before, I was doubting between a double top 5 in the Elliott count for a medium term wave, or an unfinished 5 which still needed to break 7k. I was leaning towards that second call as you can see in my previous idea linked below. There I mentionted a potential TP of 7900 when BTC would run into the golden pocket probably ending at 8100 resistance. I was well aware of the 0.5 FIB at 7200 and had profit taking orders lying at that price. After the first drop which was very much expected, I entered a long at 6700 which was the 0.5 FIB of the last short term parabolic move upwards to that 7200, and I was very curious whether that "7060" level would break, I already put a profit taking order at 7049.5 yesterday after going long as I noticed it was the only FIB level (golden pocket) with decent market acceptance. I was a bit lucky with my entry as 7049.5 was the highest we went, and my order was filled. I put the update on Tradingview later today, but still well in advance of BTC reaching that target. On the 5min time frame below that 7049.5 top (BitMEX),I switched the rest of the long into a short, which was also part of my game plan mentioned previously in the update.
From there on I was fixated on the newly created support level (0.5 FIB intraday TF) at 6780, which broke later on and confirmed my short position was a good call for the mid term. This means, as previously mentioned, that I believe we will go down to the 5.4-5.5k area where we find a whole bunch of support levels which I trust will not break, but never trust anything blindly!
[Short Term]
Where are we at now, what's my game plan on the way down?
We have bounced on various short term FIB support levels along the way, but lucky for us fresh bears, all of those broke without too much effort. I am now convinced that on the short term there is nothing to support a significant bounce from here. However, at 6480 we now find the 0.236 of the bigger mid term Fibonacci from the low, this one might cause a significant increase in price as it is a price level of interest based on past price actoin, and it might be worth to take partial profit before it hits and add more to the position when the bounce comes to an end (expecting high 6.7k area for that). You will see on the char that there is another Fibonacci level with decent importance based on past behavior, this would be the 0.382 which would be a perfect contender for the A wave to end in an ABC correctin that's supposed to end at 5.4-5.5k. You get the picutre, trade this downwards market however you prefer, but please stay safe, don't use too much leverage, always use a stop loss and move it around if you want.
[Long Term (charts following)]
What does this mean long term?
A drop to 5.4k may seem like outrageous to some of us, while other truly believe the low is yet to follow. I think it is a beautiful middle ground as it fills the volume gap above it and plus or minus corresponds with the most important FIB level on BTC the 0.5. The next interesting Fibonacci level to look out for would still be that same golden pocket at 8100 it is not going away (unless of course we get a lower low in the end). If you believe in Fibonacci extensions, which I do a little bit, but not as much, the future for Bitcoin is very bright, and I will definitely share my long term view based on that later on, but I am less experienced with the indicator.
Note to honor our dear friend Don Don Fibonaccio (creds to Kirbs)
I am very convinced that in a healthy market with enough open interest and a minimal of exterior factors (like Corona) Fibonacci will guide 99% of all major moves. Unless another indicator can convince over time that it has complete control of the market, (like we saw during the whole 13.9k to 6.4k correction for almost an entire year with my previously shared Shiff Pitchfork).
As always, stay safe!
註釋
Obviously the Elliot wave should be 1 2 3 4 5, this is a typo!
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