Thus far it looks like BTC follows curves setup by the four yearly halvings (arrows). Presumably at each halving the price is in a new 'paradigm' - more expensive than the last. The price adjusts coming into it and then starts rising under the new conditions.
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At the start of a halving coins are more expensive to mine - the supply is being turned off so the price rises. After two years we know the supply in two years time will undergo a step change to reduce supply further at the 'mid-point' the price should fall as its 'comparatively' cheap.
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@PentarhUdi - looking at the extension of his long term btc prediction in August to this week the recent 20k and 6k high and lows uncannily hit the second and third trend lines which implies that we will be starting a run to a new high to complete the bull run for this halving!
@dobrovan, ok the curve could easily be stretch out to the middle of the year - don't forget the 'legendary' BTC trader 'masterluc' has predicted 40k to 100k by August - so the top end of 100k would be 85k in just over 6 months.
Bulljim
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Love it, I've been looking at this since it broke 1300 in 2017. The only issue I have is that there has only been one point of contact on the upper channel before. We need more data. Hopefully we add another data point at the top channel soon! Good luck.
@TonyCryptano, from masterluc prediction in august last year. his prediction was 40k to 110k by august this year presumably based on extrapolating the high from December 2013 (in parallel with the lower trend line.