Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

2019年5月22日

Hey everyone. It's been a while since I posted, I don't feel like I can live up to the quality of my last BTC analysis, which was PERFECT. If you haven't seen it, check it out.

But today I was thinking "There's no way this market is going to keep going up, because CNBC is talking about it, and everyone else is talking about it."

You see, in trading 90% of participants have to lose. So if more than 10% of people are thinking the same thing, they are probably wrong.

So I busted out my chart to try to anticipate what might actually happen. I figure for the next few weeks or months the market could stay flat, while all of the bulls BTFD (buy the f*cking dip). And then, just when everyone is feeling hopeful, the market might start sliding. People will HODL thinking it will still make higher lows, but sadly for them the market will keep on tanking until it makes lower lows. It's at this point people will say "Okay I was wrong" and they will capitulate. The market will rise, they will sell, and then the market will keep rising while they slap themselves for selling so low.

Of course, there's no way to know what's going to happen. It's literally impossible to be sure. But trader psychology is a great way to try to predict what might happen, because one thing is for sure in trading, it's not easy and most people will lose money.

That's all for now, please consider sharing if you got value out of this analysis. And don't forget to leave a thumbs up and follow.

I do technical analysis as a hobby. I like to learn more about markets and share my ideas with other people. But when it comes to real trading decisions I trust my trading algorithms more than my chart analysis. See my signature for more info.

Cheers!