miaomiao18的BITSTAMP:BTCUSD的BTCUSD fib 0.5 double attempts from here - compare look- v2

if we hold up on 6450usd, bull
if we breakdown from 6450usd, bear to 3k or below 3k

----
Why we are on the way to the bull:
BTCUSD history bull counting:
formed fib 4.236( ATH ), turn it into 1 for another bull counting, targeting fib 4.236:

Take a look at the previous 2 ATH- Bear and ReBull from there :

mark ATH as 1.272

Bear target: 0.236
Way to bear target:
directly down to 0.236/0.382, pull back till 0.786, then down to 0.236.

more details in both history scenarios are:
scenario 1: ATH - 0.236 - 0.786 - 0.382/0.236
scenario 2: ATH - 0.382 - 0.786 - 0.236

ReBull target: put ATH as fib 1, then fib 4.236 is the target.
Way to re-bull target:
breakout from 0.382 and consolidate between 0.382-0.5, then bull from there.

note:
1- no single breakout from 0.5. need at least double attempts
2- after fib levels been properly broken out(been double attempted) from, became firm support.

A closeup at the RSI:

註釋

交易進行

price movement goes as blue price movement as in the charts,
stable support supposedly to be fib 0.618(9400usd),
but maybe some lucky birds would catch some flash sales on fib 0.5(7600usd)?

註釋

if following bttusd hype fibd movement, then this is what we could expect for reaching 19k/20k:

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in case some people did not see xrpbtc chart:

XRPBTC - cross fib - not until July or Aug finishes

交易進行

註釋

as mentioned earlier, in the original post, we follow the blue price pattern on the right. and this is the close match for u:

1) max. fall target is around 8400usd(close but not gonna touch 8300.

2) pay attention to the rsi in the chart, made from the original post(see in the screenshot below:

3)the reason why we won't fall below 8300usd to secure a bull run(fib counting started since 2018 bottom around 3200:

BTCUSD fib trend or hype fib target long term if hold above 8300

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wave countings in the big wave C.

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if the correction runs like this, then target 8k

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another scenario is that we may consolidate there for some time then going to reach 8500 in about 72hr

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be careful if trend reversal:

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if price breakdown from 9k, it's very dangerous.

put fib levels of bottom at 3200 and 2.618 at recent ATH 14k. 9k lies at critical fib 1.618/2. if it breakdown, we expect bear

註釋

following orginal idea posted, following the blue price pattern on the right.
held well on fib 0618 and heading up from there.

now we are facing fib 0.718, let's see if it will breakout this attempt or not.
if we breaks out fib 0.718, it's likely to consolidate bit and holding well on fib 0.718 level and heading higher:

註釋

still expecting 12k

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scenario 1 - shown above.

scenario 2- bearish if breakdown from 9k:
from the big picture above, if drawing a ling connecting from 3800usd and all higher lows. actually, we already breakdown from the trendline, and today's high it was retesting, so if it plays out this way, we are going much lower.

scenario 3:
we just finished parabolic wave up from lower time frame, and expecting retracing till at least fib 0.5 - around 10800usd(CME gap).

註釋

following Jul 29 update:
if that scenario plays out, we reached wave B, and now forming a (likely) diamond pattern.

diamond pattern:
when occurred in the middle of the wave as a continuation pattern.
when occurred on top or bottom as a reversal pattern, back to where wave started.

if we bull, then follow this:

if we retrace, then follow this:

if we fall, then follow this:

--
in case you missed the XRPBTC chart shared above, check it out.

註釋

following Aug 8 updates, fib scenarios view:

if following bnbbtc, inside falling channel forming base and forming new hype fib counting, condition- need to retest and hold around 11k
1) if base @ 0.236, then target around 20k
2) if the recent high of pull back around 0.618 count into new hype fib wave 1(where should be hype fib 0.382 normally), then target around 30k

if we breakdown from 11k even 10.5k, then we r going down more. target around 7100usd(this scenario intially updated on Jul 29 above. we finsihed big wave B now)

註釋

close look:

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in update above:
follow the purple TEMA line and u could find the bounce up areas(shown in arrow)

註釋

be careful with your take:
1)we could have bounced from there, before further down.
or
2)directly going more down to the target lower.

in my mind, i think we could be 1). can directly bounce up or have some consolidation here first.

註釋

history repeats?

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almost there or reached?

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if we are repeating 2016 Jan, then it may
1. target fall to around 10k - 10400 or to the yellow box.
2. then it goes sideway, would/may be a potential opportunity for alt coins
3. compare the time, the side way may finish by end of Sep. so, we may have about 1 month time for alts
will check and updates some alts trading ideas accordingly.

if you like my analysis, or find it helpful, please LIKE my idea.

註釋

grey line - time mark correction:
3. compare the time, the side way may finish around Sep 10 or end of Sep. so, we may have about 1 month time for alts

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touched 10400. will update tomorrow

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follow Aug 14 analysis:
1. touched yellow box, touched TEMA300
2. if we are repeating 2016 Jan(bull up), it should hold on TEMA 300/365 and go sideway from here

註釋

would not enter position here, will wait and see confirmation.
coz we have falling scenario shared on Jully 29 and Aug 9

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this idea was initially shared on July 29.
the falling scenario wave counting was learnt and made based exactly from 2018 falling pattern.

so far it worked well. and congrats to anybody who followed this idea and traded red wave A and B.

what's now?
we are on big red wave C(5 waves). currently, we are nearly completing wave 1 supposedly finishing at 9000.

my TA is not financial advice, do your own research and trade at your own risk.

good luck and trade safe.

Appreciate your like if you find my idea helpful.

註釋

trading is not about betting on which idea works.
trading is about preparing for different scenarios so you know what to do when the market comes.

as said, if you are trading bearish scenario, learn and prepare for if it's going the other way.

protect your capital and trade for profit.

註釋

if we breakdown from 9k from this fall. then may expect 8238

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same chart shared on July 29.
moved up the big wave C(5 waves) to match where Wave B really finished:

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30min chart wait to see how this triangle plays out.
and if it breakdown from 8222usd or not

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following updates on Oct 21. now BTCUSD price in the yellow box

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BTCUSD reached around 10k, what's now?
check my new idea:

BTCUSD - simple is good - MA S/R MACD TA - Weekly and Daily

註釋

simple is good, btcusd in history always tries to tell us something.
we go back to the intial idea on 2019 June 18: compare of history ATH, bear & rebull.

1. BTCUSD history bull counting:
formed fib 4.236( ATH ), turn it into 1 for another bull counting, targeting fib 4.236:

2. after reaching ATH, we use fib 1.272 to see history retracements.
in 2013 bottom and 2015 bottom, we see the retracements as:

mark ATH as 1.272

Bear target: 0.236
Way to bear target:
directly down to 0.236/0.382, pull back till 0.786, then down to 0.236.

more details in both history scenarios are:
scenario 1(2013 retracement): ATH - 0.236 - 0.786 - 0.382/0.236
scenario 2(2015 retracement) : ATH - 0.382 - 0.786 - 0.236

3. history repeats? what's now?
if it follows 2013 pattern - can't breakout from fib 0.618(9373usd)
then we go as blue:

if it follows 2015 pattern - breakout from fib 0.618(9373usd)
then we go pink as follows:

註釋

BTCUSD is the focused boy/girl - keep playing fib 0.236 level

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what we can expect now for soon?

BTCUSD fib 0.5 double attempts from here - compare look- v2

註釋

we go blue in all aspects?

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we go blue in all aspects?

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wave b target reached, following 2019 Dec 23 update.

--
Trust yoursel, trust what you found out. Keep learning.
Trust what the market told you again and again. coz it's gonna tell the same now and in future.

if there are market maker in financial asset/market.
then why would you believe there's no market marker on btcusd?

financial market/asset is made by lots of money, actually huge money.
for those market maker, it's hard and it's about being professional. coz they have to follow the intl financial market rules and history well founded rules.

that's why you can see the william gann's 1/2 bounce up short levels:
in 2013:

in 2015:

and in 2020:

--

what's now?
BTCUSD:
btcusd has to respect all the S/R levels.
from the prices and levels it already formed. it will get into another consolidation zone(9k-10k) before dropping.

ALTS:
what will alts do when btcusd is consolidation on recent high(9k-10k)
your long waited alt time is coming, some are already on.

ALTBTC:
can't say u would easily get to 10x. but 1-2x or 1-3x would be what you get get in most of the coins.

if you like my TA, give a like!
Follow me for more quality TA.
-
this idea had been long. im not really update this idea often now.
if you wanna get latest update on btcusd, please follow my other recent btcusd ideas.

註釋

wave b target reached, following 2019 Dec 23 update.

--
Trust yoursel, trust what you found out. Keep learning.
Trust what the market told you again and again. coz it's gonna tell the same now and in future.

if there are market maker in financial asset/market.
then why would you believe there's no market marker on btcusd?

financial market/asset is made by lots of money, actually huge money.
for those market maker, it's hard and it's about being professional. coz they have to follow the intl financial market rules and history well founded rules.

that's why you can see the william gann's 1/2 bounce up short levels:
in 2013:

in 2015:

and in 2020:

--

what's now?
BTCUSD:
btcusd has to respect all the S/R levels.
from the prices and levels it already formed. it will get into another consolidation zone(9k-10k) before dropping.

ALTS:
what will alts do when btcusd is consolidation on recent high(9k-10k)
your long waited alt time is coming, some are already on.

ALTBTC:
can't say u would easily get to 10x. but 1-2x or 1-3x would be what you get get in most of the coins.

if you like my TA, give a like!
Follow me for more quality TA.
-
this idea had been long. im not really update this idea often now.
if you wanna get latest update on btcusd, please follow my other recent btcusd ideas.

BTCUSD fib 0.5 double attempts from here - compare look- v2

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