Crypto-dip. What to expect? USD/BTC analytics
To understand the possible ways for further price movement with the largest cryptocurrency, we consider the facts of the past month.
- The first fall, which began on November 14th, was 16%. After that, the price was consolidated for 4 days. In this time, daily volatility was 2-5%.
- The second round of the fall, which began on November 19, led to a 21% decline. Consolidation after that also lasted for 4 days, with a volatility of 4-11% (we note its growth)
- The third fall (November 24) was 13%. The consolidation period was longer, 11 days, while volatility has increased, ranging from 7 to 14% intraday.
- The last plunge from December 3 to December 7 was about 10%.
We draw the following conclusions:
1. The speed of price decline has decreased.
2. Consolidation periods between rounds of fall have increased.
3. Increasing volatility, which directly indicates the emergence of interest of buyers in the range of $3,600.
4. The power of sellers plummeted. There is a lack of big short deals and the uprising of large long deals. The increase of volatility is due to the activity of buyers.
5. The Global Strength Indicator GTI shows a great asset oversold.
Thus, we see 2 options for the rate movement:
1. BTC price will be adjusted to $2,900 and we'll expect a rapid increase to $7,400 from there (maximum expectation by the daily chart)
2. The rate goes into a long consolidation with a tendency to a smooth growth. This is reinforced by the fact that current BTC buyers regard the asset as a long-term investment, and not a speculative tool.
In addition, it is impossible not to note the obvious cryptomarket relationship with the classical stock exchanges context. For example, the S&P500 is subject to serious bears pressure. Recall that at the beginning of the year important regulatory decisions on Bitcoin ETF and BAKKT are expected. Probably, the big players divert their assets to calmer tools in order to wait for the situation to stabilize.
- The first fall, which began on November 14th, was 16%. After that, the price was consolidated for 4 days. In this time, daily volatility was 2-5%.
- The second round of the fall, which began on November 19, led to a 21% decline. Consolidation after that also lasted for 4 days, with a volatility of 4-11% (we note its growth)
- The third fall (November 24) was 13%. The consolidation period was longer, 11 days, while volatility has increased, ranging from 7 to 14% intraday.
- The last plunge from December 3 to December 7 was about 10%.
We draw the following conclusions:
1. The speed of price decline has decreased.
2. Consolidation periods between rounds of fall have increased.
3. Increasing volatility, which directly indicates the emergence of interest of buyers in the range of $3,600.
4. The power of sellers plummeted. There is a lack of big short deals and the uprising of large long deals. The increase of volatility is due to the activity of buyers.
5. The Global Strength Indicator GTI shows a great asset oversold.
Thus, we see 2 options for the rate movement:
1. BTC price will be adjusted to $2,900 and we'll expect a rapid increase to $7,400 from there (maximum expectation by the daily chart)
2. The rate goes into a long consolidation with a tendency to a smooth growth. This is reinforced by the fact that current BTC buyers regard the asset as a long-term investment, and not a speculative tool.
In addition, it is impossible not to note the obvious cryptomarket relationship with the classical stock exchanges context. For example, the S&P500 is subject to serious bears pressure. Recall that at the beginning of the year important regulatory decisions on Bitcoin ETF and BAKKT are expected. Probably, the big players divert their assets to calmer tools in order to wait for the situation to stabilize.
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