2021 Pattern Fully Repeating: Is Bitcoin’s Second Historic Drop

Historical Pattern Repetition and Projection for Bitcoin

While reviewing Bitcoin’s weekly Heikin-Ashi chart, I overlaid the full 2020-2021 move (strong rally → sharp correction → recovery) on the current cycle. The two structures line up almost candle-for-candle.

Key observations:

1. The historical fractal projected a target zone around 112,000 USDT. Bitcoin has now reached that price area and, just like in 2021, is showing the first signs of a pullback.
2. If the fractal continues to play out, the market could print a higher swing high after the current correction, before entering a deeper mid-cycle drawdown.
3. Major support to watch sits near 92 k – 95 k (previous weekly highs) and, lower, around 72 k where the higher-low structure would break.
4. Fundamental drivers are different this time: ETF inflows, the 2024 halving, and macro liquidity conditions. These may stretch or compress the timing, so the pattern is a road-map, not a guarantee.
5. Risk management is essential. I am treating 92 k as the first invalidation level; a weekly close below it would neutralize the bullish fractal and force a reassessment.
6. As always, past performance does not assure future results. Use this analysis as one data point among many, keep stops in place, and size positions responsibly.

I will keep updating this thread as new weekly candles confirm or negate the setup. Feel free to share your own charts and let’s compare notes.

Good luck and trade safe!