We need a short squeeze to fuel a move toward the historical high. Price is holding just below the resistance level, and this is not the first approach. On the daily timeframe, there's a bearish divergence — a short signal.
Possible scenarios:
Price moves down, but holds the support zone at 98K–100K, builds strength, and then breaks out to a new all-time high.
Price moves down, fails to hold the 100K zone, and drops back toward 80K.
Price consolidates tightly around 103K–105K, volatility decreases for a while — the market enters a “kangaroo mode.”
At the moment, I’m leaning toward scenario 1 — we still need to play out the daily divergence, which might take a few days. Buyer strength is still visible. I expect a strong correction only after the all-time high is updated.
Possible scenarios:
Price moves down, but holds the support zone at 98K–100K, builds strength, and then breaks out to a new all-time high.
Price moves down, fails to hold the 100K zone, and drops back toward 80K.
Price consolidates tightly around 103K–105K, volatility decreases for a while — the market enters a “kangaroo mode.”
At the moment, I’m leaning toward scenario 1 — we still need to play out the daily divergence, which might take a few days. Buyer strength is still visible. I expect a strong correction only after the all-time high is updated.
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