BTC Technical Analysis.

"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall"

Dear Analysts and Traders,

I would like to share my latest look at the BTC price chart. First of all, I would like to point out that I am not a person who received a targeted education. I am a self-taught person who places particular emphasis on the use of Technical Analysis as the main component of the decision-making process. This is due to my approach, which assumes that the chart, although difficult to read, allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money". I would like to emphasize that the following words only illustrate my point of view, which does not have to be right, and that the publication is absolutely not investment or educational advice within the meaning of any law regulating these issues. I'm just going to talk about things I don't know anything about. In the analysis, I will use my own indicator, which is publicly available. The average value of the indicator is obtained from all visible data on the chart.


Background

In the graph showing the period from aprox. November 2022, I see a strong upward trend, which has been broken several times by the accumulation structure. The price stops around 74k, which means the price has increased by about 370%. In the more recent past, I notice a price formation resembling a double top on the chart.


Situational analysis

I analyze the chart using three volume profiles, elements of Elliot's theory and harmonic structures.
In my opinion, the most important element of the chart is the horizontal structure, which I consider to be the probable distribution. I think so because I see several indications in the chart that suggest so. The first is a structure referring to Wyckoff's theory and VSA elements. The trend and structure are in the upper part almost from the ruler, there are distribution signals that are stronger than accumulation ones, which I marked with colored arrows. In my opinion, the Bitcoin price chart represents Phase B of distribution. I see demand exhaustion near possible Uphtrust. I marked events consistent with Wyckoff's methodology in white letters.
There is a Volume Reversal Pattern between the last two highs.

The earliest profile shows a POC equal to my proposed price level, which would be the D vertex of a potential harmonic structure - the bullish bat. Looking at the second chronological volume profile, I see supply signals crossing the upper limit of the trading rank created by the profile from below. On the third, most important profile, I see a High Volume Node equal to the VOP of the first profile and also the D point of the bat. From the Elliot theory side, I believe that the price is stuck at the end of the fifth wave and I should expect a correction. I also pay attention to the time dimension. The time to cover the distance between extremes during an impulse is equal to the time between the next such event. Considering the time zone according to the Fibbonaci numbers and the impulse wave, I see a comparable distance between the X-A and B-C-D vertices.



Interpretation

Given the number of signals suggesting the significance of aprox. 43k, I think there is a high probability that this analysis will come true. Thinking about the volume ratio between accumulation and distribution, I dare say that it is possible for this accumulation to be the initial support in a Wyckoff higher-level structure.

I am very glad that this analysis was created because, especially if implemented, it will be a broad synthesis of various Technical Analysis methods to study market behavior.

Whoever reached the end of my thoughts, I thank you and I hope that the time to explore my thoughts was not wasted.

Fruitful trades and flawless analyses!

CatTheTrader