My Trade Thesis & Rationale:
Here is my thinking on this short setup. I believe this is a high-confluence opportunity where the price action aligns perfectly with what I'm seeing in the underlying market dynamics.
1. The Big Picture (Daily/4H Context):
Price is currently operating at a major historical resistance zone ($110k+). This level has acted as a "ceiling" multiple times, making it a high-probability area for sellers to step in.
I've noticed that momentum on the 4-hour chart has clearly stalled, which to me signals buyer exhaustion after the last run-up.
2. The Tactical Setup (1H/15M Price Action):
After stalling at the highs, the price formed a clear distribution range on the 1-hour chart—a sign that sellers were likely absorbing the remaining buying pressure.
✅ THE TRIGGER: My entry is based on a decisive, high-volume breakdown below the key support of this range at $107,300. This breakdown was followed by what I see as a weak, low-volume retest, confirming buyer weakness and offering a prime entry.
3. My Logic:
🎯 TARGET: I've set my take profit at $106,800 because it's located within a dense pool of long liquidations. I believe these levels often act as a strong magnet for price.
❌ INVALIDATION: My stop loss at $107,550 is placed just above the broken structure. If the price reclaims this level, my bearish breakdown thesis would be proven wrong, and it's my signal to get out.
Here is my thinking on this short setup. I believe this is a high-confluence opportunity where the price action aligns perfectly with what I'm seeing in the underlying market dynamics.
1. The Big Picture (Daily/4H Context):
Price is currently operating at a major historical resistance zone ($110k+). This level has acted as a "ceiling" multiple times, making it a high-probability area for sellers to step in.
I've noticed that momentum on the 4-hour chart has clearly stalled, which to me signals buyer exhaustion after the last run-up.
2. The Tactical Setup (1H/15M Price Action):
After stalling at the highs, the price formed a clear distribution range on the 1-hour chart—a sign that sellers were likely absorbing the remaining buying pressure.
✅ THE TRIGGER: My entry is based on a decisive, high-volume breakdown below the key support of this range at $107,300. This breakdown was followed by what I see as a weak, low-volume retest, confirming buyer weakness and offering a prime entry.
3. My Logic:
🎯 TARGET: I've set my take profit at $106,800 because it's located within a dense pool of long liquidations. I believe these levels often act as a strong magnet for price.
❌ INVALIDATION: My stop loss at $107,550 is placed just above the broken structure. If the price reclaims this level, my bearish breakdown thesis would be proven wrong, and it's my signal to get out.
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