Bitcoin Short-Term: Double Top Formation & Market Direction

3月26日

Hello, I'm Dusk, a full time trader.
If you find this helpful, please "Follow" and "Boost".

BTCUSD

Bitcoin: Movement Analysis After Double Top Formation

Bitcoin recently dropped to S:1 ($76,600) due to gold strength and tariff concerns, before bouncing back toward R:1 ($88,600) as outlined in my previous idea.
Currently, we are seeing a mild pullback on the 4H chart.

📌 Previous idea:

Since price broke above the trendline highlighted earlier, a retest toward the Test Zone ($83,400–$85,000) is likely.
This area will be critical for gauging direction, especially when watching for price reaction and volume behavior.

A direct move toward R:2 ($90,000) is possible, but due to a double top pattern on the daily chart, the following two scenarios seem more probable:

A retest of the Test Zone

Sideways consolidation to relieve downward pressure

Trading Perspective

BTC/USDT on the 4H chart still looks constructive.
However, the daily chart shows declining volume despite rising price, suggesting caution against chasing longs.

📈 Chart snapshot:


Will keep you updated as things develop.

3月28日

交易進行

We have now reached the Test Zone predicted in my analysis.


To be honest, I set this zone quite wide, perhaps unreasonably so.
However, the key point is to never enter with 100% of your position size in such zones.

While some traders do manage to find precise entry points with minimal error margins, this approach can be risky for long-term trading strategies.

When trading in the current Test Zone, I would recommend splitting your position using ratios like 1:2:3 or 2:2:4 for staged entries.

If you believe this is the bottom, you can add 20-25% to your position as the price moves upward.
This way, you only lose what you've invested when things go wrong, but when things go right, you gain more than your initial position size.

Conversely, if you expect the bottom of the Test Zone to break, you should aim to get your average entry price as low as possible, then cut losses if the zone is breached.

Remember, the market might briefly break below the zone before quickly forming a tail and bouncing back.
This is why staggered entries with divided position sizes give you more flexibility to navigate such scenarios.

3月28日

手動結束交易

Bitcoin has touched $83,600 and is now taking a brief respite around $84,000.



The decline has been faster and steeper than expected, with even the reliable Nasdaq showing disappointing performance.

Currently, Bitcoin shows little strength at support levels, and downward pressure continues to be felt.
If you've entered positions in stages within the Test Zone and are experiencing unrealized losses, I recommend reducing some of your position near your average entry price to manage risk against further potential declines.