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BTCUSD Pullback to Neckline Accomplished. 50% drawdown expected

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Signs of reversal, market structure choppy. Flat correction in consecutive double three zig-zags on the upper boundary of a macro diagonal after an complete impulsive wave; lower highs with decrease of volume, showing lack of confidence by the buyers-side, as shown on Weis Wave Volume indicator; overbought condition.

Harmonic patterns: potential bearish Crab leading to supply. If price action don't reach this area breaking volume POC, a least a back-test to VWAP from the higher high can be occur, leading by an 3-Drives pattern. High possibility of a POC back-test @ preferencial 14,6% Fibonacci retracement zone. Plus AB=CD bearish projection leading to the micro demand zone.

Strong hidden bearigh divergence on CCI oscillator.

Short position swing perspective: if price broke weekly pivot level @ 21009 with strength, possible intermediary target @ 18229 support. The price can retrace to the pivot.

MACRO

Weekly price action: the price made a strong bearish candlestick pattern Harami Cross.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jdW1UW6E/

The price is trading in a broadening structure like a ending diagonal formation.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eY8GrUnX/

Weekly scenario: price pulled back to neckline from the major Head and Shoulders back-testing the VWAP from ATH. In a potential fractal from the 1st test of this VWAP, in which the same Harami Cross performed in an overbought condition, showing that a strong supply was reached.
In addiction to the fractals, I've selected the local choppy structure and calculated the pivots by the sum of high+low+close:3, resulting in a key level exposed, in which price retraces before continue the decline in an impulsive bearish leg-Down.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OjU8ViuW/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BLvpVcqX/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UhPMHChJ/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9hzO2fnX/

Expectation: possible lower low if a throw-over occurs in a breaking of the expanding diagonal structure. this can be lead price to touch the same 88,6% Fibonacci level as occurred historically in all corrections. Therefore, a drawndown of 50% to the 11k level seems strongly possible,

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Bitcoin is about to complete it's first Wave 1 Grand Super Cycle bull run, in which actual point seems to be forming a ending diagonal of 5th impulse wave.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFtWalXm/

註釋

In addiction to my divergences analysis, Chaikin Money Flow:

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Divergences on monthy chart. A new bearish divergence on CMF released last close Jan'23

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Bull run of this Grand Super-cycle. Where are we?

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Potential retrace to test to the volume POC / VWAP anchored at higher high. Price may be rejected. Expecting decline to the local demand zone till tomorrow.

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交易進行

註釋

BTC has been trading in a choppy structure, consolidating within a ending diagonal. The potential drawdown till FEB close tends to be form a monthly bearish Harami candlestick pattern, which is highly reliable on higher timeframes.