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BTC/USD Triangle. Medium-term and local work 07 06 2024

已更新

Logarithm. The time interval is 3 days.

This idea is a continuation of the previous one, published more than half a year ago
Local trend BTC/USD 19 11 2023

An ascending triangle (conditionally bullish) is forming. The percentages of its realization and key support/resistance levels are shown. Similarly, key reversal levels are highlighted in yellow and indicated with arrows.

The Gann fan is also constructed to understand the dynamic support/resistance areas of the trend as the price movement develops in the future.

Remember, this is a phase of Dow Theory — participation, i.e. majority participation. I suggest paying attention to altcoins that are not caught up in the news backdrop.

Line chart.

Secondary trend.

BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.

Major trend.

BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.

註釋

Important dates (source of crypto tales for price direction) for local work for the coming week:

11 06 — Court decision on Trump's punishment.
11 06 — Ethereum- ETF Franklin Templeton decision.
12 06 — US Consumer Price Index.
12 06 — Hearing on the lawsuit (SEC) against the Kraken exchange.
12 06 — Fed % rate decision (another noodle).
13 06 — Musk resigns as head of Tesla if shareholders do not approve a fantastic $56 billion package.
14 06 — Monetary Policy Report from the Fed.

註釋

06/11/2024 the decline began with local consolidation. Another fictitious negative “news” was launched under the schedule.

註釋

06/14/2024 An important zone for the BTC chart and for maintaining the upward secondary trend (high probability). For the economy as a whole. Today there will be another “noodle on the ears” from Paul (the Fed about the % rate). There is a high probability of a reversal. I showed the slippage zone (knocking out stops, liquidations, “passenger dumping”) and its logic.

Negative news background. FUD. Imitation tales have become more frequent (they use the situation and mood in the market at the moment) about hacks/attacks and the like on different alts that the zones of the former long-term (1.5 years) #accumulation have or near them, some weaker (less liquid and this key) at minimum price zones, or even at capitulation zones (updating minimums).

📈🟢With a high degree of probability, this zone, or a little lower (shown on the chart and told in the video) will be the minimum “market prices” before a very significant pumping (local summer rise, then a decline, then a very strong pumping).

1️⃣🟢 Buy in parts and don’t be afraid, distributing the money according to plan in advance without violating money management (this is the key). If you work with margin, then evaluate the risks of slippage so that the exchange does not shave you off at the minimum trend values. That is, have acceptable collateral. Don't take your positions to high risk without curbing your greed.

2️⃣🟢 Another option is to work with a buy stop for a breakout.

3️⃣🟢 It’s more rational to use the first and second together and not be afraid.

4️⃣🔴 If you are working in a short position with large shoulders on this small movement, then do not forget to partially close the position, or lower the protective stop loss, so that in case of a local reversal inside the triangle (this is also true for alts) you can save your profit.

註釋

14 06 2024

BTC Secondary Trend. Gann trend fan 2024-2026. Triangle

註釋

06/23/2024 The price is in the same zone of “doubt”; it has touched the previously indicated line (light red, this is not critical, but normal) of the triangle slip zone (trend preservation). For prices to rise, a breakthrough of the local downward trend (highlighted in purple) and consolidation is important. Both bullish and bearish scenarios will locally develop with a high probability of impulse due to the collapse of stop losses and mass liquidations. That’s why the “doubt” lasts so long for you to set your stop losses or enter #futures (accept the dominant opinion) with high leverage. An extremely important point to maintain the bullish trend:

1) Ascending triangle. Maintaining the formation and breaking up. From this zone, growth to resistance (72-74), its breakthrough and new highs. Goals are shown. The growth of altcoins from +100% to 400%, before a significant correction.

2) Breakthrough of this extremely important zone, breaking the triangle formation. A decline to 58,000. From there, a return and the formation of a triple top (resistance 72-74), and then we’ll see...

3) Breakdown of the triangle, realization of a double top, rebound of the meridians (green) zone of $53,000. Then only upward to new heights.

4) Downward breakout of the triangle, realization of a double top, rebound of the meridians (green) zone of $53,000. Then a decrease to the zone 44,169, and only from this zone conditionally below 100, and then after correction to the zone 138.

Since digitalization is underway (this is a necessity), the market as a whole will grow in the long term, perhaps in the medium term, this needs to be understood. Local games can be anything. I conditionally know how it will be (high probability, and extremely low probability), but I always present it from a neutral side, but explaining the conditions with utmost precision. That's right.

Please note that I never write or talk about crypto news, Fed interest rates, or the like, as that makes no sense. News is made up according to the price chart, and not vice versa. Disconnect from the news background, channels, bloggers, chats, stay with only one price chart. The result will be obvious. You will “wake up” from ignorance and manipulation, the basis of which is the human psyche and emotions. The liquid instruments chart takes everything into account... it's true!

I am sure that most people came to the market not to make money using market volatility, but for the hype and emotions. Which translates to "hit the jackpot." This is a path to nowhere, this is not trading.

註釋

25 06 2024 Entry locally into the 58,000 zone by squeeze due to the domino effect of the long stop-loss. Rebound.

Local work and percentages to key local support/resistance reversal zones on the chart. Everything is as it was and nothing can change. To recap:

1) The key second support zone is the dotted, thick line highlighted in green, which is the meridian of the large ascending channel. The target of the triangle break down to it, which is -17% (minimum target), the zone of 53,000.

2) The key reversal zone in longing is the break (break) of the local downtrend (the line highlighted in purple), a three-week decline.

Local. It's all a local play for liquidity gathering and long/short liquidations.

Secondary trend. Medium-term reversal zones are shown on charts of a different scale, and on this one in numbers (breakout/non-breakout of key levels).

Long-term, which is essentially a conditional medium-term from the perspective of cycle duration, is only mass digitalization, which is up.

交易結束：目標達成

07/05/2024 the price reached the meridians of the large channel and the second downward triangle breakout target -17% (this is not the TA target). We have reached the long-awaited liquidity zone of $53,000. Strong support zone. Possible consolidation and flat along it.

All reversal zones and targets (breakout/non-breakout of key liquidity zones) as before. Nothing has changed and nothing can change. Be very careful with shorts. Protect your profits in them.

Buy back alts in parts and don’t be afraid (not TOP (large capitalization), not hype trash, and not dying).

In the future, with a local rise in alts, it would be rational to reset most of them or place protective orders.

For the future. Please note, this is the third time in this trend (a year and a half) that the “market maker” has drawn an ascending (conditionally bullish) triangle on large time frames and breaks it down. If they draw this for the fourth time, it will be a reverse of the past movement.

交易進行

交易結束：目標達成

the first local target after breaking the local downward trend (the “ridge of the Dragon pattern”) has been reached (the “hump” level of the formation), level 65,500, which is +13%. A local rollback is now beginning.

Altos are still in zones of consolidation, which is a mirroring of the psychology of people’s behavior. People are afraid. From 07/26 to 08/11, most likely, the market will pump more significantly.

交易進行

註釋

07/20/2024 +16.61% from reversal. A typical local collection of liquidity by exchanges before a local reversal before news tales under the chart: “Boss, almost everything is gone.” It's worth noting that alts are still in hibernation. It comes out of it, maybe lightning fast.

註釋

28 07 2024

註釋

04 08 2024 there is a correction from the resistance level of 69,500 to the mirror support level of the 58,000 zone, the price has reached it. Perhaps now, under the news negative fairy tales, they will make an "injection" of an important zone.

There is a massive negative fud both on the crypto market ("the whale sold" and all that kind of thing), and fairy tales about the war "on schedule" Israel - Sosula to direct the markets in general and cause negative emotions.

An important zone, as before for the secondary trend as a whole, is the ascending meridian (highlighted by the green dotted line). The logic and zones (breakthrough / no breakthrough and directions to the next local reversal zone) are all as before shown several months ago. The conditional percentage of two reversal zones (hold / no hold) is shown for clarity and orientation.

Probably, many are tired of the summer consolidation of both Bitcoin and the markets in general. Well, the summer period on the markets has been like this for many years, with very rare exceptions. You should not expect a periodic logical repeatable pattern - exclusivity, because you want it or it is profitable. During such periods, do other things. Rest. Self-education and so on ... For speculative addicts who just can't tear themselves away from the screen - take positions on altcoins in parts, from smaller to larger (not TOP, not hype and not extremely low liquidity). I am sure that fear does not and will not allow you to do this.

註釋

There is no particular sense in this update, but I will add.

🟢If this support zone (58 + meridian) is held (there should be some consolidation - doubt), then potentially a triangular formation can be drawn until October. It is important to break through and hold the growth trend of the local downward trend (highlighted in purple)

🔴If not, then the reversal zone is option B, which is shown above. The time is identical.

註釋

05 08 2024

did not consolidate above the meridian and broke it under the liquidation of longs by impulse, almost entered the 48-44 zone. A sideways decline is possible under some fictitious negative nonsense, most likely, and we will enter it. Squeeze to 49,000.

After the sideways, most likely, this will be the average reversal price (the percentage of yesterday's plan B is just shown from these values). Most likely, this will be until October, the end of September. Alts as a projection. On most non-pumped alts, complete capitulation occurs. It is worth looking closely at them (average liquidity + potential in %), not naturally TOP.

交易結束：目標達成

+29.87% marked % under "level" 65 501.27. Rollback back to the reversal mirror zone of liquidity $58,000 marked in yellow. This rollback formed a local conditional double bottom above the median (green dotted) of the upward trend as a whole.

交易進行

Secondary trend. The price on September 1 is at the key reversal zone of the intersection of the bullish median and the mirror level of 58. Interest from this breakthrough/non-breakthrough zone has shown. In fact, everything remains as it was, nothing new.

The US elections are scheduled for 5 November 2024. Less than 2 months are left to appease voters, or launch a destructive show for them. The direction of the stock market trend (world money and the trigger for the direction of world markets in general), and as a projection of it - the cryptocurrency market, depend on the flood of money.

The decade, September was clearly bearish for the cryptocurrency market. Let's see how it will be this time ... They will give - good. No, it's okay.

Don't be afraid to collect altcoins in parts (not TOP and not hype). People willingly buy expensive, but are afraid of relatively cheap. After 6.1 years of decline (since 13 03 2024) of "dead alta" there will be unexpected fireworks. Don't forget to sell.

交易進行

I will duplicate again on 04 09 2024 what was shown a year and a half ago. This bullish trend (secondary) in general, for understanding the local zone now and the key zones and time of pumps/dumps of the market.

註釋

21 09 2024

Good day ladies and gentlemen and their children... Today is 21 09 2024, the cryptocurrency brand has grown (trigger time date 17-18 09) in price from 58 thousand (after collecting long stops naturally) to 63 thousand now at the moment.

What's next? What is your vision, no vision?

To 75 388 and entering a new market stage?

Or to 47122? Or even to 44 169? How do you want it?

The next trigger time dates are 26 09 ...

And then after the 3rd part of October, that is, after the 10th...

Relax and enjoy.., or strain yourself, doing the Sisyphean work....

註釋

16 10 2024

+15% from a local breakout inside this bullish formation, which acts as a pullback (handle) of the cup and handle pattern in a secondary trend. Now is the key local reversal zone. Breakout and exit, or continuation of consolidation inside the pattern.

註釋

17 10 2024

Large scale for understanding this local "microphone" zone and the market phases in general.

註釋

24 10 2024

everything is as before. The time is approaching...

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29 10 2024

impulse to break through short stop-loss to the median from the reversal zone 68170.01 (68/17/1) + 8.27% to 73646.96 (Binance, market maker). The zone of no return until the very "zeroing" in case of consolidation is the key "level" 75388.35.

Alts naturally flew after. Now they will come up with some positive nonsense.

Important dates for fairy tales, as was said earlier 31 10 and the temporary "zone of US policy elections".

註釋

8.27

註釋

8.27 1337 732

註釋

03 11 2024

pullback from the resistance of the uptrend median (green dotted line) back to the local breakout zone 68 170, which is the median of the local uptrend channel. Pivot zone.
The breakout of the local resistance line is the final exit from the “microphone” formation.
Not holding this local zone — decrease locally to the lower zone of the channel.
All these local price movements are so-called “market noise”. You can use it or ignore it.

In less than 2 days, the US presidential election is announced. There could be extremely strong impulsive price movements.

註釋

06 11 2024

expected impulse by a full candle more than +10% from the reversal zone 68 170.01 to 75 388.35 at the moment, which is also the resistance of the bullish median of the large channel. In cases of consolidation, this is the level of "no return". Alts naturally similarly made impulses for the day from +5 to more than +10%. Tomorrow, the Fed's % rate will most likely be positive, for a breakthrough and continuation of the market movement in general, bitcoin as a small projection of big money.

註釋

10 11 2024

from consolidation (sticking of short positions "this can't be") zone (key for the trend) 75 388.35 another impulse of more than 81 thousand $, due to (one of the factors of strengthening without burning money) as before, mass liquidations of short positions, those who are in the "armored train". While the daily candle is full. They will add positive. We are moving to a local target of 83 603. Then after a rollback to the psychological marketing zone "on the ears".

Altos "shot" very significantly, especially as always the first low-liquid ones - impulses at + 30-100%. Then, when everything will be more clear to the majority, impulse movements will begin on medium liquid and small, trend movements on liquid TOP, that is, where the ambushed crowd was previously "real projects".

At the moment, the profit from the "crypto trash" that is outpacing the market is being transferred to other similar "crypto trash", that is, to lagging assets. But, naturally, do not fall for the marketing and do not sit in the TOP of the same trash, but with a huge number of sectarians. It is not their turn now. Everything is as always, nothing new. The scenery changes, the essence and logic are always the same.

From the TOP, bitcoin and ether, liquidity will be transferred to XRP, which is logical. The percentage will be an order of magnitude higher than in the first two, but not at the fabulous level of crypto sects.

註釋

11 11 2024

BTC — 86,750 more than +28% from the reversal. For a liquid asset, this is very different in such a short time. The price is at the local resistance of the expanding triangle. There is still local potential, but there may be a small pullback

If you trade locally, then protect your profit.

If medium-term and long-term, ignore all this.

We passed the zone of no return and very easily. We came out with a long, logical consolidation. Full implementation of a strong bullish pattern "microphone" 82% (in winter). It is unlikely that this will happen now.

Psychologically - the news zone of $ 100,000 for bitcoin, which will allegedly cover part of the US government debt (news for the pump).

As previously said, your main focus should be on altcoins. An order of magnitude larger percentage of profit.

註釋

13 11 2024