Bitcoin (BTC) Short Setup at Key Daily Resistance

前天

In this analysis, you will find a clear scenario for a potential short setup with precise conditions for confirmation and invalidation. No fluff or guesswork—only institutional analysis of capital footprints and pure price action. I will provide updates for every stage of price interaction with the POI in near real-time, so you can make timely trading decisions, not just observe events after the fact.

Context: What Happened Before?

Bitcoin has perfectly played out Scenario 2 from my previous long analysis. After the liquidity sweep below, which confirmed that the instrument is locked in a large global range, it began an aggressive, correction-less rally. This is often the case after absorbing a large amount of liquidity, which essentially became the fuel for this rise.

The Short Setup

To break out of the range to the upside (or at least make a deviation above it), Bitcoin must overcome the first serious resistance zone. This zone consists of:

• The 78.6% Fibonacci level from the daily structure.
  
• Liquidity from the Previous Week's High (PWH).
  

My plan is to look for a short position if we see a reversal reaction from this zone after the liquidity is taken. The minimum target for this move would be the lower boundary of the range and the daily order block located there. This local move inside the range can be seen as a shorting opportunity.

Invalidation of the Short Scenario:
A break of the 78.6% level with the price closing firmly above it would cancel the short scenario. In that case, Bitcoin would likely continue its move towards the next resistance level.

20 小時前

註釋

Bitcoin has reached the 78.6% retracement level from the daily structure, and on the 4H timeframe, the price has even closed below it. However, the second crucial condition for a short setup has not yet been met, namely the liquidity sweep of the Previous Week's High (PWH).

After this liquidity is taken, the price must return below the level to consider opening a short position. If the price continues its upward movement without returning below the level, the setup is not yet confirmed. A second chance for it to play out will only come if the body of today's daily candle closes below the level, which we will see tomorrow.

In any case, it will become clear in the near future whether Bitcoin is going to continue its rally to the next resistance or begin a correction towards, at a minimum, the lower boundary of the global range.