已更新

BTC still in a disctribution phrase?

BTC has been bouncing strong after touching the support around $25000. The main motivation of this "rally" is news linked to Bitcoin ETF filings of Blackrock and other big funds. It's a good news for BTC and cryptos!

Let's see how long this move will last and how high BTC could reach because SEC will not reply soon to these filling requests.

What happen if they refuse? I don't wish for this but as a trader/investor, one need to prepare for all scenarios.

Until the halving (April 2024), it's likely that the trend will be unclear. In the post in the link below, I was thinking about a possible distribution phase of BTC. Today, this scenario is still valid for me.

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UT had been probably done in my opinion, although its level is lower than my expectation.
My eyes are on the Trendline since January 2023

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My view is still unchanged: BTC is in distribution
Here below is the Short-Term scenario that I'm looking forward to:

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Update:

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Small bounce did'nt happen as expected like above. However, the global plan is still intact.
BTC is very likely to touch the EMA 50D ($29300) next days.

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BTC moves as planned. In my opinion, it'll probably touch the trendline at $28000s the next days to come. I'd expect a bounce happening at that level.

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Another view supports this "Distribution" scenario: BTC is forming a H&S pattern, very likely

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BTC is trading right below the EMA 50D (strong resistance). I'm still waiting for (1) to happen:

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I was expecting the retest of the Arithmetic (Linear) Trendline but BTC is bouncing after retesting the Logarithmic Trendine (as in the original chart).
It's not random that news (linked to BlackRock) appears at this moment. If market makers decide, we need to adapt our short-term plan...
In my opinion for a better idea about this move, we need to wait for the next candle of BTC (because the two latest ones are not with (very) high volume).

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This bounce from the Log Trendline is much weaker than the previous one. Most of the gain of yesterday is erased. In lower TF (4H), it's likely a distribution process is on-going (see "BTC a very short-term view").

手動結束交易

The move from to $28k was as planned. However, one of the key point of this analyis didn't hold: The bounce from the trendline was not successful. The selloff happened at this key moment by some news that I'm not sure their relevent impacts on crypto (Evergrande's bankruptcy), or maybe this move is just a pure manipulation?
I closed this analysis here and will update with a new one for BTC.