BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-16 19:30 UTC

5月16日

📊 BTC/USDT – Cautiously Bullish with Breakout Potential
Binance Spot | 15-Minute Chart | 16 May 2025

🔎 Market Bias: Bullish
📈 Target Zone: $104,500–$105,000

🛡️ Key Risk: Failure to hold above $103,800 → potential drop to $103,200

🧩 Key Price Levels
Support Zones:
$103,800 – psychological + prior swing low
$103,200 – EMA-13 confluence
$102,900 – 15 May demand spike

Resistance Zones:
$104,300 – recent local high
$104,800 – 1.5x ATR extension
$105,000 – major liquidity pool

📐 Technical Setup
MACD: Bullish crossover confirmed (positive histogram)
RSI: 62.8 – neutral-bullish, no overbought yet
Price Structure: Breakout from descending wedge, forming higher highs/lows

ATR: 172.87 – elevated volatility, favors breakout setups
EMA-13 > EMA-26: Confirms short-term uptrend

🏦 Macro & Quant Notes
Institutional interest remains elevated (S. Korea pension fund)
On-chain data points to $105,000 as a short liquidation cluster

✅ Trade Plan
Entry: Long above $104,100 with volume confirmation
Stop-Loss: Tight below $103,750

Take-Profit:
First TP: $104,800
Full TP: $105,000
Optional: Exit if RSI >75

⚠️ Risk Advisory
Use max 5x leverage due to ATR volatility
Watch for MiCA headlines or Fed comments

Note:
Volume confirmation needed near $104,100
Watch RSI overbought >70 for exit near TP
Macro risk: MiCA / Fed near chart bottom

5月17日

交易進行

✅ Price hasn't broken the invalidation level , support zone.
✅ The bias (bullish) and structure (higher lows, breakout potential) remain intact.

5月18日

交易結束：目標達成

📍 Update – Trade Outcome

✅ Price reached First Take-Profit target at $104,800
🎯 Strategy played out as expected with bullish continuation after support at $103,800 held.

🟢 MACD remains bullish, RSI near 70 — trend still active for those targeting $105,000 (TP2).
📊 Volume increased moderately, supporting the breakout move.

I have closed my position at TP1 ($104,800) to secure profits.
Other traders can choose to hold for TP2 ($105,000) if comfortable with current risk.

🛑 No invalidation triggered.
📈 Setup remains active for those still in the trade.

5月18日

註釋

📍 Final Update – Trade Closed (TP2 Reached)
📈 BTC/USDT hit $105,200 — 🎯 Second Take-Profit (TP2: $105,000) successfully reached.

✅ Full trade plan executed:

Entry: Above $104,100

TP1: $104,800 (partial close)

TP2: $105,000 (final target hit)

📊 MACD remains bullish, RSI >75 — indicating potential exhaustion; ideal zone to secure profits.

🔒 Position fully closed — Textbook trend continuation after support at $103,800 held.

📌 For new setups, consider waiting for consolidation or a fresh breakout signal.