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Bitcoin Long Setup: Two Potential Entry Zones After The Drop

Hello, traders! As predicted, Bitcoin is perfectly following Scenario #2 from my previous analysis.

📉 What Happened?
The instrument showed a fake rally, luring impatient traders into premature long positions, only to liquidate them with a sharp downward move. The primary Point of Interest (POI) remains below us — this is where the "whale" aims to deliver the price to fill their orders and close the shorts they used for the initial SSL manipulation.

My Trading Scenarios & Entry Plan

1️⃣ Scenario 1: Mitigation of the Primary POI

My expectation remains the same: a reaction upon the mitigation of the 4h order block, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Entry Condition: The level must hold on at least the 4H timeframe, confirmed by a bullish reversal and an order flow shift on the Lower Timeframe (LTF).
Zone: $102,745 - $103,868
Invalidation: A clear break and close below the 78.6% Fib level would invalidate this scenario.

2️⃣ Scenario 2: Deeper Liquidity Grab

If the liquidity at the 4h OB isn't enough for the whale to continue the uptrend, they might trigger a more aggressive decline to grab liquidity from the low at $100,370.

Entry Condition: A swift sweep of this low, followed by a sharp reclaim of the level and the beginning of a bullish order flow on the LTF.
Zone: $100,700 - $102,000
Invalidation: A candle close below the $100,370 liquidity level would invalidate this scenario.

Final Thoughts

Do not open positions just because the price has reached a POI. Wait for a clear reversal reaction and LTF confirmation for more conservative and safer entries. Always use stop-losses to protect your capital; no setup has a 100% win rate, and for every whale, there can always be a bigger one.

To be consistently profitable, you just need to find setups with a win rate greater than 50% — this is how casinos and professional traders operate.

Happy hunting with the whales — don't be the plankton. Follow their tracks.

6 天前

註釋

The long idea on Bitcoin remains fully valid. The price has approached our Point of Interest (POI) by sweeping the previous week's low and simultaneously reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

However, the 4h order block has not been mitigated yet, so I expect at least one more drop towards it. From there, I will be watching the reaction closely.

The Game Plan: Two Scenarios Are Still in Play

1️⃣ Scenario 1: Reversal from the Primary POI

The trigger for entry will be a reversal after the 4h OB is mitigated. The level must hold, and the price must consolidate above it.

2️⃣ Scenario 2: Deeper Liquidity Grab

If the price breaks the 78.6% level, the next target will be the low from June 5th (~$100,370). This level is the last line of defense for the bulls. A reversal from there will activate our second scenario.
Invalidation: A break and close below the $100,370 low could lead to a sharp sell-off.

Outlook

I will act based on the actual price behavior. I expect a flat market over the weekend, with further developments and a potential move into our POI likely happening next week.

Trade safe and wait for confirmation

4 天前

註釋

BTC Update Note:

Bitcoin has mitigated the 4h order block as expected and showed a slight reaction. However, three factors are significantly reducing the probability of Scenario 1 playing out:

This occurred over the weekend when liquidity is very low and significant moves rarely happen.
The liquidity from the June 13th low was swept on Friday, not concurrently with the POI mitigation.
The 78.6% Fib level was broken on the 4H timeframe.
The only remaining chance for Scenario 1 depends on how today's daily candle closes, which we will only see tomorrow. If the daily candle fully engulfs the previous bearish one, we can consider the level as held, and the long setup from Scenario 1 would be back on the table.

However, if the daily candle fails to do so, and especially if it closes with its body below the 78.6% level, then a liquidity sweep of the June 5th low becomes highly probable. In that case, we will have to watch how the price behaves according to Scenario 2.

Tomorrow will reveal a lot and clarify the situation. I do not advise making any trading decisions on a Sunday, especially since unexpected news related to events in the Middle East could trigger sharp moves in either direction for the entire crypto market.

For now, I am leaning more towards the idea that Scenario 1 will fail, and we will see at least one more liquidity grab and an attack on the final support level at $100,370, which could be Bitcoin's last chance to find fuel for a continued rally.

We will continue to observe the actual price behavior and the footprints left by institutional capital.

3 天前

註釋

BTC Update Note:

As I wrote yesterday, today has brought a lot of clarity. Scenario 1 was invalidated yesterday as expected, while Scenario 2 has received its first bullish confirmation and a hint of a potential reversal.

What happened?
Yesterday, Bitcoin was selling off, and it seemed to many that nothing could stop a major crash. However, the liquidity sweep level—the low from June 5th—has so far held the price from a further decline. If we look at the daily timeframe, this was a classic liquidity sweep with the candle's wick. Today should definitively show whether Bitcoin will reverse and continue its uptrend or enter a higher-timeframe bearish correction.

Today's Action Plan:

A 4h order block was formed during yesterday's liquidity sweep. It will likely be mitigated today, which would simultaneously bring the price into a discount zone. If we see a reversal reaction from this OB, we can start looking for an entry.

An important point to watch: liquidity has formed just below the order block (as a PWL). If the price fails to show a clear reversal from the OB and closes in its lower half, we will likely see at least one more sweep of the lows. This would not yet mean a total bearish breakdown if the price reclaims the $100,370 level after the sweep.

If that secondary sweep happens, I will not take any trades and will wait to see how tomorrow's daily candle closes. If it engulfs today's bearish candle, Scenario 2 will still be valid, the liquidity sweep will be fully confirmed, and we can look for a long entry on a pullback.

I will keep you updated on every development.

前天

註釋

BTC Update:

Yesterday's green daily candle has provided the final confirmation that the recent sharp downward move, which scared so many, was merely a liquidity sweep for a potential continuation of the uptrend. This sweep has also shown that Bitcoin is locked in a large global range. A breakout from this range to the upside (or at least a deviation above it) is only possible if the price breaks and closes above the 78.6% Fib level (107,900) from the daily structure.

As expected, the price mitigated the 4h order block yesterday and had a sharp reversal reaction. An aggressive entry was possible, but I personally missed it because the optimal entry window was very short. Entering after the sharp move above 100,600 was too late, as the stop loss would have been too large for my minimum 1:2 RR.

What's Next?
Another opportunity for a safe long entry will only be possible if Bitcoin pulls back to the second 4h order block in the discount zone. If, during this pullback, the price breaks and closes below the lower range boundary at 100,700, this will increase the probability of a bearish breakdown and invalidate the bullish scenario.

For those who missed the entry like I did, there are no safe entry options for now. The price is currently in the middle of the large range, which is essentially a zone of complete uncertainty. I am waiting to see how the price develops. If there is a pullback to the lower order block, I will look to get into a long upon a reversal reaction. If it continues to rally from the current levels, short positions can be considered from the strong resistance zone above—in that case, I will publish a separate idea for a short.

Let me know in the comments if anyone managed to catch the long yesterday. Happy to see it! 😊

昨天

註釋

Bitcoin has continued its rally without a correction to the second order block below, which is now unlikely to happen without first interacting with the resistance it is approaching. This resistance can be considered a shorting opportunity (with confirmation), so I have published a new idea outlining the entry conditions and invalidation for that short scenario.