Bitcoin outlook: Bullish

2023年8月11日

Upon conducting a comprehensive long-term analysis, it becomes evident that Bitcoin's current valuation persists below its median threshold. Nonetheless, an intriguing potential for a more pronounced bullish trajectory remains, poised to unfold before any significant bearish tendencies take hold. At the heart of this analysis lies a median value of 36094.0, an anchoring point that draws attention to a desired cyclic range spanning from 29507.2 to 42680.8. It's important to note that the attainment of this extensive range remains speculative, given the multifaceted uncertainties prevailing within the western markets, with a focal point on the United States where legal ambiguities cast their shadow.



The unique strength that propels Bitcoin forward is inherently rooted in the foundational tenets of the proof-of-work principle, which serves as the bedrock of its decentralized structure. This decentralization stands as a critical linchpin for Bitcoin's sustenance and endurance amidst an ever-evolving landscape. Operating on a proof-of-work consensus mechanism, Bitcoin orchestrates a global network of miners whose collective endeavor validates transactions and reinforces the network's integrity. Through an intricate dance of computational prowess, these miners solve intricate mathematical enigmas, fortifying the very foundations upon which the blockchain rests. This intricate tapestry of decentralized participants meticulously thwarts any attempts at monopolization, shielding the system against undue manipulation, censorship, and the peril of consolidated authority.

In stark contrast, a transition of Bitcoin to the proof-of-stake paradigm would inevitably usher in a shift toward centralization, undermining the robust decentralization that stands as its hallmark. Such a transition would confer decision-making power to those holding the largest coin stakes, thereby disturbing the democratic equilibrium that defines the present landscape. This transition threatens to erode the resolute strength of the proof-of-work mechanism and elevates the susceptibility to centralized control, presenting a potential vulnerability to the very ethos that has propelled Bitcoin to the forefront of digital currency innovation.

Inextricably linked to this discourse is the onset of a bear market, which emerged on November 14th, 2021, an event that can be construed as a requisite course correction following a period characterized by an unhealthy and excessively bullish market upswing. My conviction is rooted in the belief that for Bitcoin to chart a sustainable growth trajectory, it must adopt a cyclically balanced approach, steering clear of the tendencies that lead to over-reliance and unchecked growth. Notably, the ongoing reliance on Bitcoin as a reference currency paradoxically impedes its untapped growth potential, raising pertinent questions about the need for diversification in its utilization.