BTC/USDT 15-Minute Spot Chart Analysis
Exchange: Binance | Timeframe: 15m
Decision: 🔴 SHORT (High-Probability Mean Reversion)
Indicators:
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence spotted (Price higher highs vs. RSI lower highs).
MACD Crossover: Bullish histogram fading, potential bearish crossover imminent.
ATR (220.23): High volatility suggests aggressive stop placement.
Value Investing (Fundamental Anchor):
Overbought zone ($105K resistance) aligns with historical rejection levels.
Weak volume surge on upticks vs. strong sell-volume clusters.
Macro/Momentum:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" post-UK regulatory FUD and Texas Bitcoin Bill hype.
Altcoin rally (ETH/XRP outperforming BTC) signals capital rotation away from BTC.
Risk Management:
Tight stop-loss to avoid whipsaw in high-volatility regime.
🎯 Trade Parameters
Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit-1 Take-Profit-2
104,000 104,500 103,200 102,640
Risk-Reward: 1:3.5 (Stop: 0.48% | TP1: 1.7% | TP2: 3.1%)
📉 Technical Setup
Indicators:
RSI (14): 44.8 (Neutral but fading from overbought).
MACD: Histogram uptrend weakening (-155.21 vs. -215.84 signal).
Volume Profile: Low volume on latest candle vs. earlier sell-volume spikes.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $105,510 (Today’s high)
Support: $102,640 (24h low) → Primary TP target.
⚡ Execution Notes
Trigger: Enter on break below $104,000 with a limit order.
Stop: Tight due to high ATR—adjust if volatility expands.
TP1: Partial close at $103,200 (liquidity pool).
TP2: Full exit at $102,640 (swing low).
Contingency:
If BTC reclaims $104,500 (stop-hit), wait for confirmation of bullish reversal (e.g., MACD flip) before reconsidering.
This is a classic exhaustion play after a liquidity grab above $105K. The lack of follow-through volume and RSI divergence screams mean reversion. Short with conviction but respect the stop—macro news can spike volatility.
Exchange: Binance | Timeframe: 15m
Decision: 🔴 SHORT (High-Probability Mean Reversion)
Indicators:
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence spotted (Price higher highs vs. RSI lower highs).
MACD Crossover: Bullish histogram fading, potential bearish crossover imminent.
ATR (220.23): High volatility suggests aggressive stop placement.
Value Investing (Fundamental Anchor):
Overbought zone ($105K resistance) aligns with historical rejection levels.
Weak volume surge on upticks vs. strong sell-volume clusters.
Macro/Momentum:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" post-UK regulatory FUD and Texas Bitcoin Bill hype.
Altcoin rally (ETH/XRP outperforming BTC) signals capital rotation away from BTC.
Risk Management:
Tight stop-loss to avoid whipsaw in high-volatility regime.
🎯 Trade Parameters
Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit-1 Take-Profit-2
104,000 104,500 103,200 102,640
Risk-Reward: 1:3.5 (Stop: 0.48% | TP1: 1.7% | TP2: 3.1%)
📉 Technical Setup
Indicators:
RSI (14): 44.8 (Neutral but fading from overbought).
MACD: Histogram uptrend weakening (-155.21 vs. -215.84 signal).
Volume Profile: Low volume on latest candle vs. earlier sell-volume spikes.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $105,510 (Today’s high)
Support: $102,640 (24h low) → Primary TP target.
⚡ Execution Notes
Trigger: Enter on break below $104,000 with a limit order.
Stop: Tight due to high ATR—adjust if volatility expands.
TP1: Partial close at $103,200 (liquidity pool).
TP2: Full exit at $102,640 (swing low).
Contingency:
If BTC reclaims $104,500 (stop-hit), wait for confirmation of bullish reversal (e.g., MACD flip) before reconsidering.
This is a classic exhaustion play after a liquidity grab above $105K. The lack of follow-through volume and RSI divergence screams mean reversion. Short with conviction but respect the stop—macro news can spike volatility.
取消訂單
Entry Condition: Break below $104,000Reality: Price reversed before entry and pushed up to $104,800
Conclusion: Trade idea is canceled, not stopped out — because never in the position
註釋
📉 Post-Trade Update SummaryBTC/USDT 15-Minute Spot Chart Review
Original Plan: Short on break below $104,000
Price reversed before triggering the short entry
Rallied aggressively to $106,800 (liquidity sweep & stop-hunt)
Then dumped sharply — hitting the original take-profit targets ($103,200 ➝ $102,640 ➝ even lower to $102,200)
🎯 Key Insight:
✅ Setup was valid — RSI divergence, weakening MACD, and altcoin strength correctly signaled a top formation.
❌ Entry not triggered — discipline kept risk controlled as price never broke $104K.
📌 After stop-hunting upside extension to $106.8K, the dump validated the short thesis — targets hit after a fakeout pump.
📌 Lesson:
Patience and precision matter. This was a case of "early signal, late confirmation." The idea was right — the timing just didn’t align with the entry condition.
Entry rule avoided getting trapped in a false breakdown. Re-entry after confirmation would’ve captured the move.
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。