The Next Cycle Peak? Insights from Long-Term Holder Behavior

During every cycle, long-term holders start selling their BTC as it moves to new highs. This data provides key insights into the bull market.

The selling of these holdings is shown through the collective balance of long-term holders, as indicated by the gray arrows.

Typically, the balance reaches its lowest point shortly after the market peak.

In the 2017 bull market, it took around 270 days for the hodler balance to hit its lowest point, which came right after the market cycle peak.

In the last bull market, the exact peak is debated. The first peak occurred 210 days after the hodlers started selling, while the second peak took place 410 days after the initial decrease in their balances.

As in previous cycles, long-term holders have started selling again. We can identify late December as the starting point. Assuming the peak occurs within a similar timeframe, we can estimate the next peak will happen within the next 140 to 260 days, or between October 2024 and March 2025.