CADCHF – 4H Timeframe (H4) Technical & Fundamental Analysis

CADCHF – 4H Timeframe (H4) Technical & Fundamental Analysis

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy interest rate at 2.75% in April 2025, opting for caution amid global economic uncertainties.

Looking at the CADCHF 4-hour chart, The pair is exhibiting a potential shift in momentum after a prolonged selling phase. Price reached a significant low around 0.58400, where it formed a Triple Bottom pattern — a classic reversal signal. This technical structure was followed by a break above the minor resistance level at 0.59500, marking a clear Change of Character (CHOCH) that signals emerging bullish sentiment.

Currently, price is showing signs of accumulation within a liquidity zone. If a liquidity grab or stop-hunt occurs inside this area, it could set up for a breakout continuation. A potential area of interest lies around 0.59530 (possible breakout point), with risk managed below 0.59010 if liquidity forms. A longer-term target aligns with the next major resistance zone around 0.60690.

This setup reflects evolving market structure and buyer interest, supported by strengthening fundamentals favoring CAD.

Fundamentals Supporting CAD:
Easing U.S.–China Trade Tensions: Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a likely de-escalation of tariff disputes, lifting global risk sentiment and supporting commodity currencies like CAD.

Oil Price Recovery: Oil prices climbed nearly 2% to $64.31 per barrel, reinforcing CAD strength given Canada’s heavy reliance on energy exports.

BoC Policy Stability: The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 2.75% in April 2025, citing external risks but expressing confidence in domestic resilience. This policy stance supports financial stability while remaining responsive to global developments.

Fundamentals Weakening CHF:
Dovish SNB Stance: The Swiss National Bank signaled no rush to tighten policy despite lingering inflation, which undermines CHF’s yield appeal.

Weak Domestic Data: Disappointing Swiss retail sales and declining manufacturing output have raised concerns over economic momentum.

Diminished Safe-Haven Demand: As global risk appetite improves, investor demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like CHF has softened.

📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.