CADJPY Bearish Reversal? Smart Money + Seasonal Confluence

6月18日

🧠 COT Sentiment

Speculators are heavily net short on CAD (–93K), while maintaining a strong net long position on JPY (+144K).
→ This positioning clearly favors JPY strength over CAD weakness.
Commercials are hedging JPY downside, but the dominant flow remains JPY bullish.

📅 Seasonal Patterns

Historically, June is weak for CAD (5Y, 10Y, 15Y averages all negative).
Meanwhile, JPY tends to strengthen in the second half of June.
→ Seasonality supports a bearish outlook on the pair.

📉 Technical Structure

Price has reacted precisely to the Fibonacci 0.705 retracement (106.23) and is showing signs of RSI divergence.
We are trading within a key supply zone between 106.70 and 108.30, which also aligns with a major resistance cluster and harmonic extension.
First target sits at 103.88, with potential extension to 101.20 if breakdown confirms.

🛢 Macro Catalyst

Oil remains under pressure.
CAD retail sales dropped significantly.
Risk-off sentiment (cautious Fed + geopolitical tensions) favors JPY as a safe haven.

📊 Retail Sentiment

62% of retail traders are short, but with an average entry at 108.49.
→ A break below 106 could trigger liquidation, fueling further downside.

🧩 Trade Setup

🔹 Entry zone: 106.70–107.00
🔸 SL: Above 108.40 (invalidates the bearish thesis)
🎯 TP1: 103.88 (S/R retest)
🎯 TP2: 101.20 (extended target on risk aversion)

🧭 Synthesis

Every angle aligns toward a potential bearish reversal on CAD/JPY:
✅ COT positioning
✅ Seasonality
✅ Macro narrative
✅ Technical confluence
✅ Retail sentiment trap

6月22日

交易進行

Waiting for a short reaction. Price didn't show bearish signals during the last week