Cocoa prices in New York are down over -50% from their all-time high in 2024 (Blue Line); but London prices have declined -58% from their April 2024 peak (Green Line), to $4,262, the lowest in 20 months. New York prices are still above the 20-year average of ~$2,700 per ton. What's driving the London-New York price split? Geographic arbitrage on cocoa futures feels like it's telling us something about supply chain fragmentation nobody's pricing in yet. Supply shocks, weather swings, and speculative bets turning it into a wild ride.
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