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Oil - Possible breakdown

由smitheric1970提供

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Oil has been sideways for 10 weeks but as the 200 MA is aligning with the next base level down at 48.5 level and as the soon to be front month April chart has been a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily, I anticipate we will see a 20 day down cycle 2/10-3/10. Target prices and details on the chart; I will be closing all shorts at TP 2, expecting a bounce near the 200 MA after which I will reassess a short entry for TP 3

1. 200 MA lined up with next base level down at 48.5 level and
expect that prices will breakdown and test it
2. I anticipate 2/10-3/10 20 will be a 20 day down cycle
3. I am currently looking for closing daily prices to break the ascending Trend Line
4. I will close all shorts at the TP 2 Level expecting a large bounce
and reassess short entry for TP 3.

Good trading all!

Song of the week: youtube.com/watch?v=B9FzVhw8_bY

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Prices have not spent more than 5 days above or below 52.44 level during the past 10 weeks; currently prices are 4 days above; I will expect a test of 52.44 by tomorrow.

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If we do see a breakdown in oil prices after rolling into the April contract, the base levels here, same as on the chart above are lining up for the perfect storm with the 100 and 200 Moving Averages.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/Gx5c3huv.png

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CLJ7 (April) chart showing illustrating that the next base level down on J (in red) is in line with the next base level down on the continuous chart

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/u/uGjnoh9r.png

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Wow prices really ran up yesterday; tough to say if it was a squeeze last day of rollover; which is my guess. If prices don't break yesterday's high after EIA then I'm still on the short side. Although the supply line was broken on the continuous and April (CLJ7) chart, the daily closed below the last daily supply price of 54.32; so I am still looking at this level as resistance and a selling zone.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/v/VLmU88Yl.png

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Song of the week:

youtube.com/watch?v=bpOSxM0rNPM

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Update for week of February 27:

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Song of the Week! As I believe prices may be ready to head down...

youtube.com/watch?v=vBecM3CQVD8

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Seems that TV is not allowing my youtube links... Rolling Stones - Sympathy for the Devil

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Continuous chart observation - I am attempting to align targets with the April chart above:

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/ZiKGxCNg.png

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With prices breaking below the 14 week demand line and closing down into the next low supply zone today; along with increasing rate hike sentiment which will likely pressure oil prices, these are my assumptions for lower consolidation over the next 5 trading days:

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/h/H7A3MkNX.png