WTI suffered a defeating Blog today. Up until now I favored a bullish outlook considering seasonality and the positioning of the commercials according to the CoT report.
From an Elliott-wave perspective we are at an important short term juncture. Should WTI breach the latest trough at 70.39 additional downside potential into the 58 region will be activated. If it get‘s exuberated, WTI could fall to 43.83 USD, the 1.618 extension of wave A/W.
The last short term chance for WTI bulls would be a leading diagonal as wave 1. Though an LDT seldomly occurs, I slightly prefer that outcome for the aforementioned considerations concerning CoT and seasonality. The correction could end any moment. A potential open target would be the 71.47 handle.
From an Elliott-wave perspective we are at an important short term juncture. Should WTI breach the latest trough at 70.39 additional downside potential into the 58 region will be activated. If it get‘s exuberated, WTI could fall to 43.83 USD, the 1.618 extension of wave A/W.
The last short term chance for WTI bulls would be a leading diagonal as wave 1. Though an LDT seldomly occurs, I slightly prefer that outcome for the aforementioned considerations concerning CoT and seasonality. The correction could end any moment. A potential open target would be the 71.47 handle.
But there are two conditions now:
- Prices should rally fast from down here. This is supposed to be a wave 3 of 3
- CL musn't fall below 74.09 USD again.
If CL falls below 74.09 USD, I would scrap this count and look for downward targets.