smitheric1970
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Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin Kick

NYMEX:CLN2017   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
958 6 27
In a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the 50.4 level until a larger breakout occurs, which I believe will be to the upside. After much excitement of my last buy level at 50.4 being reached it was soon thwarted by a swift kick in the groin by OPEC and I saw my long entries stopped out. Never makes for a fun day... Based on weekly levels (discussed in the 'Oil - Rangebound' chart, I believe oil             was in a 45.6-52.40 range; however during the past 2 weeks prices have seen significant bounces on a weekly level at 45.6 and 48.21 (both major weekly inflections from 2008 and 2015) - I will repost the weekly chart discussing those long term weekly inflections later this weekend. Following yesterday's drop, if prices had remained near the 48.21 level, I would likely have been short minded still looking possibly for the 46-47 level; however, as we saw a significant bounce at the 48.21 level on high volume ; I believe that yesterday's ugly drop was just a correction and that weekly markup will continue to the upside. As we have FOMC likely raising interest rates mid-June, I am guessing that prices will remain in sideways consolidation potentially between 49.01-51.60, potentially 52.80 level. The next few week's EIA             reports and DX             sentiment heading into FOMC will of course have a large impact on these coming swings.

Trade Setup:

Buy/LongL 49.01-49.65
TP1: 51.25
TP2: 52.40
SL: Still working on this; please reference the Potential Spring zone and lower demand zone

I would expect that prices continue up to test the 8/9 MA level and possibly 50.4 level prior to heading back down to the entry zone, we'll see next week. I'm still shaking of last weeks bumps and bruises; and patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Again, I will update this later with the weekly levels used from 2008 and 2015, it is quite interesting to me how significant they still are.

Have a great weekend and happy trading next week all!

評論: My charts always have levels, usually marked supply or demand but just price inflections that I view as interim buying or selling climaxes, so, a place where there was a continued markup and selling finally overcame buying; This creates a buying climax or supply level; which in the end is just a price inflection. My levels are used just like Pivots, but I only use closing prices and have a few simple rules. I've had a few ask about them so here is a chart explaining the rules for my method.
評論: This chart shows how those supply/demand levels came into play when choosing a potential long entry on a pullback based on a strong Supply/Demand Exchange zone (I use those same rules on any timeframe); as well what I will look for when deciding on a stop loss.

Thank you again to @kate25 for tuning me in to the supply/demand exchange.

評論: I mentioned adding a weekly chart showing the 2008 and 2015 levels used, this is not it; this is a weekly view of the July contract and shows some price alignment on different July chart timeframes. I will post the 2008/20015 level chart this weekend, it is the most important view long term.

評論: This is the weekly chart mentioned above that shows the long time strong weekly levels from 2008 and 2015

評論: And here is the same chart, with 2015 levels added and a current view showing that prices are still reacting to those levels on a weekly timeframe. These level are important in my overall view of prices potential range.

交易進行: This trade is active, prices have entered the 49.01-49.65 buy zone.
評論: Intraday view on a 4 hr; hoping we'll catch the broken TL and then move up to the next zone.

評論: Prices saw a full run through the buy zone today, the bounce at the bottom was a good sign so far; I'd like to see prices hold 49.3 (darker shaded buy zone) which is the November 30 breakup bar level. Intraday, on the last 4 hr chart update we saw a bounce form just below the 49.18-49.38 level; I have the same chart here and have adjusted that pivot to a true demand line and include the 4 hour supply line which i'm hoping prices target. Near Pit, prices once again saw that 49.8 level and rejection; which i'd assume was end of day profit taking at the daily 9 MA. It looks like 49.8-49.9 is shaping up as a strong inflection level and we'll likely have to wait until after reports to find out whether short term it will act as a buying or selling level.


Good trading all!
交易結束:達到停損點: Unfortunately closed out below the lower demand zone; month end close may have gotten the best of me today; took a beating the past 2 weeks! ug!
Keep the faith, man. You certainly appear to have a good handle on the inflection points, but ultimately sentiment drives markets.
While we can sometimes get a feel for the rhythm, sentiment can be like the wind or a herd of buffalo, or should I say bulls, & change direction with no warning.
I'd be interested in your general take on the longer term.
Mine is that it is down for the foreseeable future.
Reasons:
The OPEC cartel agreements to cut production are not worth the paper they are written on, The shale producers have to do something to pay their debts almost no matter the price of oil, so they alone can keep storage/reserves at or near capacity. Nothing makes the biggest buyers more worried.
The world economy is propped up by central banks trying to control the relative values of their currencies and the cost to borrow them. Their biggest fear is deflation but they have no bullets left to prevent it except their hot air. So they push or more accurately blow hot air on their interest rate 'strings' as if they need to rein in inflation, but more often than not don't raise them hoping their hot air can fan the flames of consumption.
Finally, if or when the consumer sees through the ruse, the prices of all commodities, except water & air will fall in a deflationary spiral as consumers wait to buy thinking the price will come down further.
No worry for that in the near term, but the winds sure appear to be swirling, so I am trying to pick tops more than bottoms.
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@kome-on, Thanks so much, I have much to say here and promise will give a response later. Yes, I've found that I can be clueless on direction but my simple rules for marking supply/demand yield very strong inflection points. Although I closed this chart; I think the spring area was just a bit lower than I'd anticipated (I address that on the second chart update with various spring levels) if we see another draw on next weeks reports this chart could still see some nice results. More to come late on my longer term view!
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Nice write up Eric! Detailed as always and educational as well, Thanks!
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smitheric1970 TuanNguyen713
@TuanNguyen713, Thanks for checking it out, I appreciate it!
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Hi Eric! Shared some losses with you on Thursday) The movement was awfully strong. I've took the train from 48,3 to 49,6 just yesterday, but with much less volume so it wasn't enough)) I also plan to re-enter at Tuesday and agree with your levels.

Let's get some money) thank you for your work and charting! As clear as it can be.

P.s. Saved your 2008-2010 chart.

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@VIP77, Thanks, much appreciated!
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