6/16/25 - $crcl - I'm short

6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: CRCL
I'm short

- it's much easier to find shorts in this tape than the converse
- CRCL is the chitstablecoin that broke a few yrs ago and nobody serious in "crypto" (when i mention "serious" i mean bitcoiners) uses
- they basically hold deposits and give you a USD-style token and earn the spread
- but if you look at financials... they don't make nearly as much $ as they should on these deposits
- ofc they'll tell you they're doing a lot of other silly things
- "yes" stables and the stables economy r red hot (hence the stonk price reaction). also kudos to them for IPO'ing in this window. it was really a great time to do it. so hats off.
- but what is an inferior stable (USDT/ tether is the only legit product on the market) worth?
- multiple hundreds of times PE?
- 10x book?
- guys... this is basically a one-trick-pony-bank, they aren't reinventing the wheel, and most products built around USDC won't likely be launched by circle b/c the org is slow/ expensive and will be highly regulated to doing such things in a reasonable window of time
- so will it go higher? idk. idc. i'm looking for shorts.
- this one is a bit OTM for oct. it's a helluva expensive short, probably for good reason
- but i don't think this valuation holds
- and it's great offset/ hedge to my monster OBTC stack, which i expect a convert in the next 2-3m to ETF, which means 15% upside on this holding. so i need an offset here, hence i'm looking for some beta-adjacent hedges.

V