DAX in weak condition

The german performance index DAX is technically in a weak condition:
1) S-H-S pattern
2) wedge with the course actually on the lower limit
3) leaving the long ascending trend channel to the bottom
4) rebounded at resistance line (fib retracement 78.6% - 12.614)
5) RSI and MACD clearly with negative tendence

If DAX will break out of the triangle what could be the next low?
Depending on when and on what level it will break out I drew 2 arrows:

1) spread between lower and upper limit when it hit first time the lower limit
2) a clone of this arrowed drawn at the tip of the triangle
=> fib retracement 38.2% (10,734); a loss of approx 13.5% from the current level

Also remarkable, that the DAX would break the long asending trend, coming from 2009! A very bad sign for the future!

To become more bullish the DAX should:
1. stay within the trend channel and the triangle
2. break the resistance at 12,640
3. RSI should break the negative trend as well

Actually one has to be prudent.

This is no trading advice.