1-Month Treasury may decrease around 2024-01 to 2026-01

2023年4月14日

The 1-Month Treasury may or may not decrease around 2024-01 to 2026-01.

2023年4月15日

註釋

News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime"
" Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "

2023年4月19日

註釋

"Aug 30, 2022 Reminder":
"At the time of writing (see chart below this comment for inverted yield curve), 2022-08-30, it appears that the "3-month Treasury" is still increasing well above the "10-month Treasury"; which may not be a favorable outcome in 3 to 24 months"... "Meaning around 2022-11 to 2023-03 to around 2024-09 at the very latest; based off of the time of writing this analysis. "
Inverted Yield Curve Monitor: US 3-month versus 10-Year Treasury:

2023年4月19日

註釋

1-Month Treasury may decrease around 2024-01 to 2026-01

2023年4月19日

註釋

This is a nice debt-to-GDP chart (make note):

2023年4月23日

註釋

2023年4月24日

註釋

"Aug 30, 2022 Reminder":
"may not be a favorable outcome"... "2022-11 to 2023-03 to around 2024-09 at the very latest".

For the other topic of common economic measurements: best ETA 2024-01 to 2024-03 for the onset. There should be more visibility by those dates. By 2024-09 there should be greater visibility. It seems as 2025-01 to 2025-03 may have even more economic visibility.

2023年4月30日

註釋

green indicators reflect possible increase (short-term) (may shift any day)

2023年5月25日

註釋

2024-01 or 2025-01

2023年5月27日

註釋

1-week view with 1-day top indicator signaling a possible decline position on the daily:

2023年5月29日

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2023年5月29日

註釋

2023年6月30日

註釋

still entering the predicted yellow line zone
1D (1D top indicator):

2023年10月9日

註釋

Inflation is so sticky and elevated, it's possible that rates will remain unexpectedly higher than historical trends.

2023年10月10日

註釋

Indicator used for 2023-05-25 update:

2023年10月14日

註釋

This time (ETA: 2024-01-01 to 2024-04-04)... I expect the rates to shift at the very last minute when most needed. There may not be too much of a predictive notice this time.

2024年5月2日

註釋

I expect 2024 will have no FEDFUNDS cuts (flat all year); due to sticky inflation from global challenges.