Current trend looks to be heading towards 23.5K per the 'Adjustment', but looking at historical data we can see where we'd most likely be if Reaganomics never happened (Slow progression), as well as slow growth rates during other periods which may more accurately reflect where we ought to be. Safe bet is that we're heading to 23.5K, but if we go by 1997 trends, this could be roughly 20K. Reagan-bump trends would be 9.5K (I think this is the 'actual' number), and pre-Reagan trends are roughly 6k. Just my thoughts.
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