5/23/24 - $domo - short, EPS setup looks -ve across board

2024年5月23日

5/23/24 - vrockstar - DOMO - setup is ripe for a short (which these days i can only justify w/ P's if it's small cap stuff like this). the reason is... they literally are everything you can't own in this tape

1) broken stock, not a meme

2) years of dwindling growth, zero this yr

3) don't make money, burn; and would be worse if adj. for stock comp - a cash expense for stocks that go down

4) net debt

i've entered some jul19 6P's for 15c which seems like good beta on a rough tape from open. the idea is... if miss/ bad print this goes -10-20% and grinds lower, it's great offset to my longs. if miss/bad print and tape remains risk off... this gets shot to 5 and leaks even lower probably in the coming months. idea is to make 3-4x on this, and even if that's a 50% probability and there's a 50% probability where i go to zero. that's an EV positive trade. i take all of those as you guys who have been reading know.

2024年5月23日

註釋

abysmal quarter for $domo. "we are thinking we are stabilizing" is code for *things are bad and this is the only thing we can say*. burning cash (^^ see above of $12 mm in the quarter excluding stock comp). if you're on the sidelines, the way to play this is to see if it gets some sort of "PE" bump (i see this often - the owners need to paint green candles to see bag holders show up on the pump) and short this pump. but all indications are that this should be down 20-25% in the coming days/week and probably more if tech remains risk-concerned. look at INTU for reference - and my comment there AH - which i'm dip buying. great results/ guide and rooms for further improvement on products - stock down 7%. if the big stuff is tough to buy. the failing small stuff is radioactive. DOMO is radioactive at the moment. the only thing that can save the tape is some "rumor" of a buyout to (again) find illegitimate exit liquidity. will update the trade thinking tmr if needed. stay safe fam.