DXY Big Long Momentum Ahead ?!

8月19日

The Dollar Index (DX1!) has been in an uptrend since the spring-summer of 2008, when it reached its lowest point.




Since October 2009 (after the first leg down of the uptrend), whenever the net positions of retailers in the CoT report turn negative (or approach zero) AND retailers reach an extreme low in the CoT index (either in the short-term OR long-term), a significant run-up typically follows. Please note that these are weekly charts.




The only exception was in June 2020, when the price continued to decline until later that year in December, which ultimately led to a substantial 2-year uptrend.




At the same time, the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality indicators show that we are currently at the bottom, which is expected to last until the end of September, suggesting an uptrend.




Additionally, there is a weekly demand zone ahead around 101.400 - 100.320. If enough participants join in, a significant run-up is expected.



The fundamentals are in place; we just have to wait and see if the demand zone holds.

BE AWARE, this is the Dollar Index, which means all other major currencies, especially EURUSD, will be affected if this scenario plays out.

9月8日

註釋

As you can see Retailers added even more to their short positions and the CoT index of Retailers touched the 3-year low again within two weeks. More confirmation of USD upside momentum.

9月21日

註釋

This is the CoT Index and the CoT net positions of Commercials. There is a significant jump from a negative index to a 3-year high positive index, indicating a major shift in the positioning of the market's key players.
As you can see, whenever the Commercials CoT index reaches an extreme high and the CoT net position is positive, the dollar index has experienced a notable upward move.
Additionally, retail traders are still at a low extreme, and their net position remains negative—a strong signal that a significant upward move could be on the horizon.


Currently, the price is in a demand zone that I highlighted above. A move up from this zone is expected. However, if this zone doesn't hold, the next demand zones are located here: