Dollar Death Cross predicts Bitcoin Bullrun and Alt Season
TLDR: Dollar go down: crypto go up.
Introduction
This is a pretty simple fundamental idea. The top chart has about five years of dollar price action on the daily chart with just the 50 and 200 Simple Moving averages. The pattern is pretty clear: Dollar go down and bitcoin go up. While Bitcoin is topping Total3, goes crazy. I decided to put total 3 in terms of bitcoin because if bitcoin is supposed to be money it needs to be used as a unit of account
Analysis
This is a pretty simple concept, so the analysis is minimal. Dxy might do some thrashing about over the next month while it decides its direction but the behavior we are seeing out of crypto is very simular to what we saw at the mid of 2020 and into 2021. Bitcoin was chopping sideways for a couple of months as 2020 ended and then the beginning of 2021 showed a lot of strength in some beaten down coins.
I see a lot of coins appear out of phase with one another in their consolidation cycles but that is for a different post. The big picture is the death cross has not happened yet and needs some time to mature. There is always the chance that DXY will have a series of bullish and bearish crosses but that is my minority scenario. DXY went on a year and a half tear and I think we will easily see it back down to 93 or 94.
That gives crypto a lot of time to run while the dollar is in decline, bottoms and reverses. I do think we will see a lot of upside action in US Equities but I think the momentum trade is moving away from the fancy names and we should see midcaps moving.
Here is the Total2 market cap demoninated in bitcoin. It still needs watching itself but it seems clear that there is a lot of compression under Ttoal2 all time high in bitcoin terms and when that breaks we should see a lot of money flowing into alts.
My Plan
Here is Matic from the last bull run. The plan is simple: By when the Stoch RSI is low for the next 6 months or so. I like Optimism so I will be buying the dips on that for the next short while and with any lucks ome of my early buys will be over 100x with no margin. If no then meh. I'll be assessing coins for strength as things go. This is a low stress plan that allows be to have a buy once or twice a month when paychecks come in. Due to the coins being out of phase I am leaving the top runners of 2021 alone for now. New coins for me probably for the whole year.
Introduction
This is a pretty simple fundamental idea. The top chart has about five years of dollar price action on the daily chart with just the 50 and 200 Simple Moving averages. The pattern is pretty clear: Dollar go down and bitcoin go up. While Bitcoin is topping Total3, goes crazy. I decided to put total 3 in terms of bitcoin because if bitcoin is supposed to be money it needs to be used as a unit of account
Analysis
This is a pretty simple concept, so the analysis is minimal. Dxy might do some thrashing about over the next month while it decides its direction but the behavior we are seeing out of crypto is very simular to what we saw at the mid of 2020 and into 2021. Bitcoin was chopping sideways for a couple of months as 2020 ended and then the beginning of 2021 showed a lot of strength in some beaten down coins.
I see a lot of coins appear out of phase with one another in their consolidation cycles but that is for a different post. The big picture is the death cross has not happened yet and needs some time to mature. There is always the chance that DXY will have a series of bullish and bearish crosses but that is my minority scenario. DXY went on a year and a half tear and I think we will easily see it back down to 93 or 94.
That gives crypto a lot of time to run while the dollar is in decline, bottoms and reverses. I do think we will see a lot of upside action in US Equities but I think the momentum trade is moving away from the fancy names and we should see midcaps moving.
Here is the Total2 market cap demoninated in bitcoin. It still needs watching itself but it seems clear that there is a lot of compression under Ttoal2 all time high in bitcoin terms and when that breaks we should see a lot of money flowing into alts.
My Plan
Here is Matic from the last bull run. The plan is simple: By when the Stoch RSI is low for the next 6 months or so. I like Optimism so I will be buying the dips on that for the next short while and with any lucks ome of my early buys will be over 100x with no margin. If no then meh. I'll be assessing coins for strength as things go. This is a low stress plan that allows be to have a buy once or twice a month when paychecks come in. Due to the coins being out of phase I am leaving the top runners of 2021 alone for now. New coins for me probably for the whole year.
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