US Dollar Index - Sell Signal

2021年2月9日

DXY daily bearish engulfing candle & clear rejection at downtrend line. DXY has also rejected off previous 2020 yearly low just like in September 2020.

This as the market is pricing in Biden's new $1.9 trillion stimulus plan which is getting closer to approval. Any delays in stimulus talks will likely cause a reversal in sentiment and the US Dollar Index.

Monthly view:


DXY doesn't fall out of a multi-year rising channel only to print a reversal & jump back in after a few months.

As soon as the $1.9 trillion stimulus passes the next leg down begins.

Target 88.



NB: If/when DXY does continue higher a retest of 92.25 will be a key area to watch and has been for decades. I would expect a rejection at 92.25 in the first instance. I will only become overly concerned & start to think about closing equities after a monthly close above 92.25 - this will be the sign this debt fueled market may be topping or at least due to cool off.

2021年2月13日

註釋

Printed a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly too

2021年3月2日

註釋

Daily close may be cause for concern but waiting to see how the rest of the week develops and how weekly closes