Idea for macro:
When inflation is expected to continue, risk-on (baskets of equities, crypto, etc.) and risk-off (metals, basic materials, etc.) markets strengthen, and the dollar settles to equilibrium as volume between the dollar against the rest of the index peaks.
When the expectation disappears, risk-ons go sideways while risk-offs plunge and bottom for a short term rally (you are here). Then both risk-on and risk-off top off, weaken to their bottoms, while the dollar(DXY) goes up as more people hoard dollars.
DXY expectations:
DXY will rise while signal diverges from the 14-week RSI 70 level. Once the signal bounces off 50, we get a realization of price and signal, and the DXY trend reverses down and the divergence of signal and price disappears.
OR
Inflation surprises the market, DXY plunges below 89, the idea is invalidated, and we get complete chaos, everything rallies again.
When inflation is expected to continue, risk-on (baskets of equities, crypto, etc.) and risk-off (metals, basic materials, etc.) markets strengthen, and the dollar settles to equilibrium as volume between the dollar against the rest of the index peaks.
When the expectation disappears, risk-ons go sideways while risk-offs plunge and bottom for a short term rally (you are here). Then both risk-on and risk-off top off, weaken to their bottoms, while the dollar(DXY) goes up as more people hoard dollars.
DXY expectations:
DXY will rise while signal diverges from the 14-week RSI 70 level. Once the signal bounces off 50, we get a realization of price and signal, and the DXY trend reverses down and the divergence of signal and price disappears.
OR
Inflation surprises the market, DXY plunges below 89, the idea is invalidated, and we get complete chaos, everything rallies again.
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