$ELF Trade Setup & Fundamentals: $150+ Targets

11月12日

Greetings Everyone,

I wanted to highlight ELF, which has been on my radar for over three months.

Sector Insight:

The Consumer Discretionary sector, including e.l.f. Beauty, has shown unique market resilience. Despite sell-offs in leading stocks, the sector itself has held strong, even gaining ground. This suggests that while individual names saw profit-taking, capital may still be active within the sector. It raises the question: What are institutional investors targeting here? 🤔

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Fundamentals:

Q2 Fiscal 2025 Performance: Net sales jumped 40% YoY to $301.1 million, driven by retail and e-commerce growth.

Market Share Growth: U.S. market share rose by 195 basis points, marking 23 consecutive quarters of sales growth and share gains.

Profitability: Gross margin hit 71%, reflecting cost efficiencies, currency benefits, and price adjustments abroad.

Outlook Raised: Full-year net sales growth is now expected to be 28-30%, with EPS projected at $3.47 to $3.53, signaling sustained confidence.

Levels & Technicals:
Correction Zone: Began at the $220 level.
Major Price Levels: Horizontal Rays at $114, $143, $153, $220.

Gaps: Present at $120 and $159 levels.
Volume: Breakout volume hit 9.45 million compared to a typical 2-3.5 million during range-bound moves.

Trade Idea: ♟️
Gap & Go Strategy: Look to fill gaps, then break higher.

Price Targets 🎯
$152
$170

Next Steps 💡
Check out Lululemon (Canadian-based) for similar strength in the same sector. Let’s collaborate on chart insights! 📈
DYOR! NFA!