S&P still trading within the downward wedge near the 3900. A move above 3900 would be bullish, but price must clear the Jun 27th pivot and the 55 ema for bullish continuation. Here are a few points to consider going into next this week.
• Current bias BEARISH ==> Neutral
• Coming off a 1.93% rally into the 3900 level.
• Trading above 9/21 ema cloud
• Top of downward wedge and 55 ema are now upside targets
• Yields have been dropping along with oil. Many talking peak inflation
• Inflation coming down, but recession worries still top of mind
• Week ahead is data heavy with CPI & PPI data released
• Earnings season begins again with reports from the big US banks
• Rally last week can not be trusted until we see daily close above the June 27/28th pivot.
• S&P may still need to re-test the 21 ema before going higher
• Indexes are attempting to base but no confirmation of a new uptrend yet.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Williams Speaks & OPEC Monthly Report (22:00pst)
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday CPI Data, Bank of Canada Rate Decision & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless claims, US PPI data & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Friday US Retail Sales, US industrial Production, University of Mich Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PEP, PSMT
Tuesday
Wednesday DAL, FAST
Thursday JPM, MS, TSM, AOUT
Friday BLK, C, USB, UNH, WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive price momentum
Earnings momentum
Still oversold conditions
Yields pulling back
Reduced inflation
Trading above 9/21 ema cloud on daily
BEARISH
Potential earning recession
Still in down trend
Potential high CPI reading
High risk of outlier event (Taiwan invasion?)
Most market participants expect at least one leg lower
S&P likely to retest 21 ema
• Current bias BEARISH ==> Neutral
• Coming off a 1.93% rally into the 3900 level.
• Trading above 9/21 ema cloud
• Top of downward wedge and 55 ema are now upside targets
• Yields have been dropping along with oil. Many talking peak inflation
• Inflation coming down, but recession worries still top of mind
• Week ahead is data heavy with CPI & PPI data released
• Earnings season begins again with reports from the big US banks
• Rally last week can not be trusted until we see daily close above the June 27/28th pivot.
• S&P may still need to re-test the 21 ema before going higher
• Indexes are attempting to base but no confirmation of a new uptrend yet.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Williams Speaks & OPEC Monthly Report (22:00pst)
Tuesday Fed’s Barkin Speaks
Wednesday CPI Data, Bank of Canada Rate Decision & EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless claims, US PPI data & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Friday US Retail Sales, US industrial Production, University of Mich Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday PEP, PSMT
Tuesday
Wednesday DAL, FAST
Thursday JPM, MS, TSM, AOUT
Friday BLK, C, USB, UNH, WFC
BULLISH NOTES
Positive price momentum
Earnings momentum
Still oversold conditions
Yields pulling back
Reduced inflation
Trading above 9/21 ema cloud on daily
BEARISH
Potential earning recession
Still in down trend
Potential high CPI reading
High risk of outlier event (Taiwan invasion?)
Most market participants expect at least one leg lower
S&P likely to retest 21 ema
評論:
3900 remains resistance until it's not. Would not be surprised to see it pull back to the white trend line. Expect hesitation in the market until the CPI print comes out. Dollar strength also pressuring the market as it pushes down commodities and makes US products less competitive.
評論:
The 3900 level continued to be a wall of resistance. Price fell back below the white ascending trendline. The S&P has been weaker than the NAS with the drop in commodities and recession fears. The LT 382 Fib may still be in play. The NAS has already tested the 382 but the S&P has not. Both indexes are attempting to base. Currently the S&P is showing relative weakness.
