ES1! Week of Oct 22/23

2023年10月22日

My targets are in the chart.

Everything is overwhelmingly supporting a move to that target box.

However, there is some upside expected into tomorrow. I have plotted the most logical area
where we should see rejection, this is just based on our breakdown from the monthly bear threshold and the fact we have a bullish 99 at 4275.

Of course things are looking bullish for Monday, ES1!, NQ1!, SPY and QQQ. But watch that little red box because we really shouldn't theoretically surpass it unless ES1! wants to be super messy this week.

Hitting that target box will also be taking out the monthly lows on ES1!, especially if we traverse right to the bottom of it.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on ES1!. Will probably post a SPY specific idea tomorrow.

Safe trades everyone!

2023年10月23日

註釋

Looking at the probs for tomorrow, it should be a nightmare.
SPY and SPX are coming up pretty hard bearish, QQQ bullish but NDX fence sitting.

Usually this plays out 1 of 2 ways:

1. Qs rally off open right up to their high target while SPY just stagnates and whips around a bit. Then, once Q has taken the target out, it pulls back and SPY tanks down to its first low target. From there, we whipsaw up and down for most of the day.

The less frequent playout is:

2. Both start either bullish or bearish, go down or up to its primary targets, then whipsaw like mad. If they took out the bullish targets first, we will generally see a dramatic drop mid to EOD down to the low targets on both SPY and Qs. If we drop at open, we will generally see a dramatic spike mid to EOD up to the high targets.

While number 2 is less frequent, its still a possibility. We will know which one its electing to do pretty quick. If QQQ starts running and SPY doesn't, that is good, it means #1. If both start tanking or running, its bad, it means extreme whipsaw is coming.

Best reco for tomorrow is to keep it quick. Perhaps the Qs for a bullish play off open, which is likely what I will be doing.

Safe trades everyone!

2023年10月24日

註釋

Unfortunately its opted for #2 and the whipsaw has started earlier than I foresaw.
Its not going to be a friendly day to trade.

I haven't done any yet and probably won't, its getting right to the point with the whipsaw so its my que to just leave it alone.

If you are playing ES1! I would look for 4280 to be the ultimate rejection zone on the day.
SPY around 424/425 range. Assuming they have the strength to push up that high, which it seems like it wants to.

GLTA!

2023年10月24日

註釋

Did a bit of an aggressive scalp with 80, 0 dte puts off resistance:



I am out, but this is likely going to the second high target no the week (425.86).

If you haven't taken a position, that second high target on the day (in the chart I just posted) is just slightly below SPY's second weekly high target, if you remember. I do think we should see that target at 425.86, for the sole reason that the conditions have been fulfilled to reach it.

If we reach it today, you can expect some dramatic rejection there.

Safe trades everyone, I wish you all the best of luck!

OH! And I see I surpassed 6,000 followers last night, jeeze! Thank you all so much for your support/interest in reading my ramblings!

2023年10月24日

註釋

SPY weekly chart:



And on the HA 4 hour with HA TP:

2023年10月24日

註釋

I do suspect we see how scenario #2 played out ^.^

2023年10月24日

註釋

Similar sitch tomorrow.
ES /SPY, BEARISH. The readings aren't as bearish as today, but they are bearish enough.

And QQQ slightly bullish.

I suspect we will remain range bound until earnings spike us in either direction and then when PCE comes in hotter than expected on Friday, boom. Target box hit probably.

Until then, just play the range I suppose. Here are our targets for today/tomorrow intraday on ES1!, already making a run for the first low lol, Extraordinary.



Safe trades everyone and have a good evening! And if you are trading this momentum during Asia, safe trades!

2023年10月25日

註釋

Late update as I was out and about this am.

So indeed we are just ranging between the first weekly low target and the threshold on ES1!:



And the first weekly high target and the threshold on SPY:


I suspect we may circle back up to the threshold, if that is the case and we see yet another rejection, it will likely take us right to the target box.
My personal thought is it may wait for PCE to do it, but between now and PCE maybe a circle back towards the threshold. I was kind of hoping we would go right to the target today but it doesn't look like its happening haha.
But maybe!

2023年10月25日

註釋

Oh god, it may actually be going for it today! haha awesome,

2023年10月26日

註釋

I am really digging this PA this week. It has actually been a really mellow week with stable and predictable PA.

As of now, the Asia session is bringing us to the target box.



Ideally we hit this overnight/maybe even into the AM and then we're good.
The probs on the day tomorrow are bullish on ES1! and SPY for momentum and regression, all agreeing. So we should see upside tomorrow, at least a bit.
If we can open the day having removed a snag of that target, I would be a bit more bullish biased, but PCE is a wild card and likely may pull us down to the bottom of the target box, effectively removing the second monthly low target. So, not great to be looking at longing for more than a day trade quite yet, but def some long day trades to be had tomorrow!

All in all, should be a good day and provide straggles with a chance to re-enter short.

Safe trades everyone, GLTA!

2023年10月26日

註釋

Good morning,

So we got the target, great.
However, it really would be ideal to move to the bottom of this box. The reason being is because then we have also fulfilled the monthly conditions.
It may wait to do that, we have actually had quite a lot of selling and it does need a bit of relief.

There is a golden setup on ES and NQ but its quickly fading as this starts to rally, both ES and NQ have unhit 99s on the daily:



And NQ


Very rare, but its evidently going to try to get them before we open so of course no one can reap the rewards of the move with 0 dtes haha.

As of now, 4209 is the target (GT), from there, if momentum holds out, a move up to 4221. If we break it, 4245 is the level to watch. Anything past 4245 tread cautiously. Because we are leading into a major bearish catalyst and that kind of bullishness would be a bit ... suspish.

Safe trades everyone!

2023年10月26日

註釋

Oh, sorry I realized I left out SPY levels for those who just trade the SPY chart:



Looking for a re-test of the bullish condition essentially is the moral of the story with all these ES levels haha.

2023年10月26日

註釋

Yikes, pretty bearish.

I tried a long scalp that ended at least with some profit but not what I was expecting.

It looks like it wants to just complete the move, which is fine but its a sit out day for me when things don't align.

Can't complain, this week has been pretty good, so I'll let this one go.

Good luck everyone! Safe trades!

2023年10月26日

註釋

So even after all that we didn't quite complete the full move, still more downside but I think PCE will get us to complete it:



We really need to take out that second monthly low target and then we are good.

SPY is in the same boat, looking to test that 408/409 range which is its second monthly low target:




Crazy that some weeks ago we were at 450s and now we are here haha.

I suppose it meets the criteria of being a mess :p.

2023年10月27日

註釋

If we are completing the downside move today, we need to see ES1! lose 4172.

2023年10月27日

交易進行

Short SPY off ES1! chart, stop out moved down to the bullish threshold on ES to save some profits.

I am targeting the completion of the move (green line).

2023年10月27日

註釋

Stop moved down.

I am going to put this on autopilot because I am not going to be around today.

A completion of the move is between PL1 and PL2 on the daily.

I have conditionally set this to trail around PL1, which I expect to lead to a bounce.

I will catch up with you at close.
Best of luck to all, safe trades!

2023年10月27日

註釋

2023年10月27日

交易結束：目標達成

Out,
There are no signs of reversals to flip long. In fact, if you look at volume and HA candles, its to the contrary, signs that show even more continuation which seems pretty extreme tbh.

We have the 3 month target on SPY at around 403 I believe. So its best to not jump in right away to long it, unless you are starting an SPXL or UPRO positron with the plan to scale in.

As much as I am inclined to long it down here, really nothing is triggering a reversal sign at this point, except we are far removed from our ARIMA range:



Will catch up after close to give you a sneak peak of probs and such for next week.

Enjoy the rest of your day!

2023年10月27日

註釋

If you're curious, probs for next week hint at a pretty sizeable move up but then rejection and a move even lower.

Stay tuned!