Elliott Wave Theory applied to S&P 500

I'v just made an Elliott Wave projection of the S&P 500 with the hypothesis that the Wave 2 will retrace 61.80% of the Wave 1.

As you can see, the market may go as low as $600 (lower than 2000 and 2008 lows), which seems very unlikely.

We can therefore make 3 potential scenarios out of this analysis:

• What I've called Wave 1 is an ABC corrective pattern and therefore what I've called Wave 2 might be the first wave of a new bullish trend.
  
• We're indeed in a 3 Waves down pattern, but wave 2 will retrace more that 62%. Which will make the overall downtrend stop way above the $600 and make this scenario way more probable.
  
• Wave 2 will retrace 62% and we'll probably see lower lows than previous crises. This is the worst case scenario which I don't consider the most probable.
  

We need to wait for the Wave 3 to form in order to know in which scenario we are. Indeed, if Wave 3 retraces less than 100% of Wave 2, we'll be in the first scenario and go back for a bullish market. Otherwise we'll go for the bearish pattern.

I'll keep you updated on this as the trend evolves.