Overview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 17th:
Update: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early, which I believe I could have known based on the structure. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Now, can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC, then a massive bearish wave (III) initiates. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak.
- The price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count.
- This count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion.
- My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z.
- My target for wave (II) peak? 3960-3986.25
Update: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early, which I believe I could have known based on the structure. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Now, can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC, then a massive bearish wave (III) initiates. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak.
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