es 7-21 update (bullish projection)

in my previous post, i shared my primary bearish projection;
in this one, i'll talk about my primary bullish projection.

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i have shared this idea recently via:

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my only problem is our indicator, and a few other factors.
i've lowered the probability for this mid-term bull case to about 10%.
raising the probability for my mid-term bear case to about 90%.

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if this was to play out though,
i'd be looking for a downward pivot around the same zone: between 4040~4120
>followed by a dip to that 3800ish range,
>before seeing an expansion to anywhere between 4200~4300

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ps. i forecast the long term bottom to be in near the middle\end of 2023
ps2. it will be a historical buying opportunity once this correction is completed.
ps3. i'm not necessarily attached to either of these ideas, will play whatever the market gives; i just like to be ready for either outcome, just in case.

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