SPX Leading the Way (Fakeouts to Rally)

2022年6月8日

So we're coming into the end of the quarter. Funds need to reassure investors and hit their bonuses, I wonder if we don't see a second-half June rally like we saw at the end of Q1 with that March upswing. The pricing in these charts works out well with fibs (gold=retracement, green=extension), the 20ema's (daily/weekly/monthly represented on chart) and max pain for options (specifically 6/17) happen to align with this price action.


I anticipate the CPI on Friday being the catalyst that propels downward, then some kind of change in tone with the Fed in conjunction with data received (maybe retail sales, manufacturing index, inventories) to spark an oversold, technical and short-lived but impressive, rally.

A lot of correlation with past price action in terms of total movement vs. time in a fractal sense, movement within established channels and the retesting of prior resistance lines. The down-draw would also form an inverse h&s (ish) pattern which I thought was interesting. Additionally, this would bring price to roughly the mean of the fall as a whole, which make make sense before the start of another journey to lower lows later this summer.

A couple closer looks, as well as a shot of how I see the QQQ playing out in conjunction. Cheers