S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?

Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.

Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.

From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:

Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.

Summary:

The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.

Current Strategy:

Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.