June 12 2022 - ES daily - Mostly bear

2022年6月12日

After break of triangle consolidation pattern from the past week due to CPI data, ES and overall indices (S&P/SPY, NASDAQ, DJI) response is down and likely further down to go.

Bear targets:

• Target 1: 3840s
  
• Target 2: 3750s
  
• Target 3: low 3500s
  

(Targets are mostly zones).

Narrative:

• Purple is the initial channel that has been encompassing the COVID trend since Mar 2020. Loss of this line signifies a serious shift of tone if that hasn't already been obvious.
  
• Bolded red line is the VWAP since beginning of 2020 in addition to black trend line encompassing action since July/Aug 2021 which is when the % of S&P stocks above 200 EMA crossed below 80% (See ticker S5TH) and is where the bear market truly began in hindsight.
  
• The 3rd lowest red line is the 2019 VWAP in combination with the 200 weekly EMA at 3495 + green trend line, this is a strong area of support and an excellent medium/longer term target for this bear market.
  

How to play:

• For long term plays, buy puts 1 year out.
  
• Shorter term plays is heavily volatile. Chasing shorts currently is a difficult and risky play. We are also near the weekly balance level. With FOMC upcoming on June 15 there will be many traps.
  

2022年6月15日

交易結束：目標達成

Targets 2 reached prior to FOMC, and VWAP from 2021 with black trend line held extremely well. Good job if it played out for you! On to the next thoughts.