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ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Aug28-Sep1)

SUMMARY

ES finished the week with a gain of 0.76 % after trading in a range of 118 pts.
ES fell below the Aug 16th High
ES is now trading below the 9/21/55 emas
First support is now the 236 Fib RT
Price is still above th 618 Fib and the Feb 2nd high
Sectors finished mixed with XLK & XLY leading and XLE pulling back. However XLE still showing near term relative strength.
Catalyst for continued sell off is rising bond yields.
Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the lower trendline is now posible.
Watching 10 yields as they test the 2008 high at 4.27.
Earning seasons finishes up with reports from CRM, CRWN, LULU and NIO.
Non Farm Payrolls due out this week on Friday
New month starts Friday

ECONOMIC EVENTS

MON Fed's Barr speaks
TUES US CB Consumer Confidence, US JOLTS Job Openings & Fed's Barr speaks
WED US ADP Employment Change, US GDP & EIA Crude Oil Inventories
THUR US PCE, US Jobless Claims & Fed's Collins speaks
FRI US Employment Rate, Non Farm Payrolls, CAD GDP, US S&P Manufacturing & Fed's Mester speaks

EARNINGS

MON Nothing notable
TUES BBY, BMO, BNS, BOX, HPE, NIO, SJM
WED CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
THUR CIEN, CM, CPB, DG, ESTG, LULU
FRI Nothing notable

BULLISH NOTES

ES starts the week above 236 Fib / 100 SMA support
Potential bounce off Feb 2nd high and lower trendline
ES remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
Longer term uptrend remains in place if price does not pull back below the 50% Fib RT
Potential postive reaction to NFP
Potential drop in bond yields

BEARISH NOTES

Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
ES now below the Aug 16th high
ES dropped below the 9, 21 & 55 emas.
Potential negative reaction to NFP
Retest of Feb 2nd high is likely
Deeper pull back to lower trendline is possible
A move below the Feb 2nd high would drop price out of the longer term bull zone.
Seasonally weak period for stocks.
Potential yield move back above 4.27%.
VIX rising

註釋

$ES_F trading in similar fashion to the $NQ_F. Started the week consolidated between the 55/21 emas. Price has now broken above the 21 ema and the Aug 16 high which is bullish. First upside target is last Thursday's high. A break above Thursday's high would negate the H&S pattern everyone is watching and could lead to push back to the 4600 level.

註釋

Here's a look at the H&D on the daily. So bullish above last Thursday's high, but bearish if price rejects. A rejection could take price back down to the neckline of the pattern and lead to a deep pullback. Above Thursday's high a move back to 4600 is possible.

註釋

$ES_F pushed through last Thursday's high easily and is now above 4500. I will remain bullish above 4500. Close today will be key as it is the last day of Aug going into the long weekend. A reversal below the 4500 again would signal a potential move back to the 21 ema.