ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950

Current Market Structure

• Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
  
• We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
  
• Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
  

Friday's Action Analysis

• Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
  
• Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
  
• Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
  
• Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
  
• Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
  

Technical Structure Issues

• White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
  
• Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
  
• Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
  
• Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
  

While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.