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ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (July10-14)

SUMMARY

ES finished the week with a gain of 0.99 % after trading in a range of 71 pts.
ES closed back below the Aug 16th high
ES closed below the daily 9 ema
First support now 21 ema
10 year yield broke out last week. Now above 4%
Aug 16th High proving to be solid resisance
Earnings begins season Wed/Thurs with the big banks.
Bullish trend remains intact above the HTF 618 Fib retracement (4378)
CPI data due out Wednesday & PPI Thursday
Buy the dip is back with ATH in play.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

MON US Wholesale Inventories, Fed's Barr & Mester Speak
TUES Nothing Notable
WED US CPI, Fed's Barkin, Bostic, Mester & Kashari speak, BoC Rate Decision & EIA Crude
THUR OPEC Monthly Report, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI
FRI University of Mich Sentiment

EARNINGS

MON Nothing Notable
TUES Nothing Notable
WED Nothing Notable
THUR DAL, FAST, PEP
FRI C, JPM, STT, UNH, WFC

BULLISH NOTES

ES above the HTF 618 Fib RT
EMAs are stacked.
Potential bounce off 21 ema
ATH is now in play.
Earnings momentum will begin next week
Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
TSLA and AAPL have huge whole number targets.
Buy the dip is back in favour.
Market breath has improved.

BEARISH NOTES

Second rejection at Aug 16th high resistance
Potential double top at the Aug 16th high.
Potential break below 21 ema
MEGAS are in resistance zones
Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)
Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
Price is stretched from the weekly emas and 200 sma

註釋

$ES_F Sold off today but bounced off the 21 ema at the top of the green box, closing back at the 9 ema. Price needs to clear the 9ema and Aug 16th high for bullish continuation. A break above 4500 would make a move to the 1.13 Fib X likely. If price breaks down below the 21 ema next support is the HTF 618 Fib. Below the 618 Fib a move back to the Dec 13th high would be likely.

註釋

$ES_F has cleared the 4500 level and the Aug 16th high. This puts the 1.13 Fib X in play. I would expect resistance in this zone. If price breaks though look to the 1.272 Fib X at 4700 as the next target. On a pull back first support would be the Aug 16th high and the 21 ema below that.