Current odds for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3

If we drop below 3075, either it would quickly drop more to 3000+ or quickly get rejected. Either way, the longer term would still be bullish.
Although the drop to 3000 would take some time to reconsolidate...it really all depends on the macro context, remember this is all based on sentiment and future outlook...if the future starts looking bleak, expect that to be reflected in the market.
The VIX index jumped up above 30, hitting as high as 32.22, which is the limit, or event horizon for market panic (anything > 32). But it came back into the "normal" regime. Let's see how the day plays out.