We've now traded in a range for a long time and this weakens the case for the bull trap with a harmonic D leg. While it's hard to refine down to a science of any sorts - usually the turns in a harmonic are crisp and sharp - this is what creates the W (Or M) structures.
To create the W structure the market has to make two "V" shaped lows. When there's a prolonged range this V shape becomes impossible, and I find most of the time this happens the extension for the harmonic will not come. Breaks are more common.
Any time we have a prolonged range it's important to be aware of spike out risk. I'm short from 3950 w/ stop 39570 but would also be interested in shorting 3990 w/ stop 4010 if we spiked up.
Bears need to close under 3946 to break macro supports and I think a close under 3910 firmly suggests the bear is in play.
Update to
To create the W structure the market has to make two "V" shaped lows. When there's a prolonged range this V shape becomes impossible, and I find most of the time this happens the extension for the harmonic will not come. Breaks are more common.
Any time we have a prolonged range it's important to be aware of spike out risk. I'm short from 3950 w/ stop 39570 but would also be interested in shorting 3990 w/ stop 4010 if we spiked up.
Bears need to close under 3946 to break macro supports and I think a close under 3910 firmly suggests the bear is in play.
Update to
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
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We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。