The Fib's a Fib! A word of warning on $SPX futures

2022年6月30日

I'm hearing folks get all worked up about this downward fib extension on the SPX. They look at the monthly chart and declare that if it holds support the bear market's over and if it doesn't here comes the end of days. We might get a bounce at that level, but if you think it's going to big boy bounce to 4100 because it's a historic fib level you might be setting yourself up for a head fake. First of all I don't see us leaving this cozy bear den of a down channel anytime soon. Second of all I think (at least as of 12:10 AM est on Thurs 6/30) that we could very well bounce off the blue counter trend line that has been acting as support, and all these folks who think we're launching off the fib extension could get whiplashed at the upper resistance of the down channel. If you're looking for a fib bounce, I'd say look a level down :)

2022年6月30日

註釋

Whelp the counter trend line was confirmed as the key support level as the violent drop happened once that support broke down. This may be headed to the bottom of the channel.

2022年6月30日

註釋

If it heads back up, the blue counter trend line may be a resistance level to watch. If it breaks through, I still think the channel holds its structure.